Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T16:16:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

9B 0x9bac…53d5 sports 35 markets active 2h ago coverage 600d

TRAPdo not copy

✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL +$103 (+4%) realized +$103 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip

Net edge-26%after slip

Net WR48%break-even

Win rate48%15W / 16L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$67per market

Trades / day0.2pace

Fees−$3est.

Kalshi-fit57%portable

Net worth$89now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$5

7 days+$41

14 days+$74

30 days+$74

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +48%

net ROI/market (all)-26.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	17	-9.0%	-17.7%	53%	53%	-0.4%
≤30d	18	-4.5%	-13.6%	56%	56%	+5.4%
≤90d	18	-4.5%	-13.6%	56%	56%	+5.4%
all	31	-18.5%	-26.2%	48%	48%	-5.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.2 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-26.2%	48%	-5.6%
10%	-33.3%	42%	-14.6%
15%	-39.7%	35%	-22.9%
20%	-45.7%	23%	-30.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 24% · top 2 46% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -18% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -32% → late -6% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$33 vs −$24 · ×1.33 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×1.25 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

600d coverage

Net worth$89

Realized+$103

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)48%

Wins / losses15 / 16

Est. fees paid−$3

Open positions4

Markets (closed)31 / 35

History coverage600d

Avg bet$67

Trades / day0.2

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 4 History 31 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 3.5	Under	79¢	80¢	$80	$81	+$1 (+1%)
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 1 Canada?	Yes	15¢	14¢	$3	$3	−$0 (-3%)
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 2 Canada?	Yes	13¢	12¢	$3	$3	−$0 (-4%)
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 2 Canada?	Yes	11¢	10¢	$3	$3	−$0 (-5%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27?	Jun 28	$30	+$20	+67%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27?	Jun 28	$5	−$5	-98%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 27	$10	+$4	+42%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 27	$20	−$20	-98%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 27	$5	−$5	-98%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5	Jun 26	$20	+$11	+52%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 26	$10	+$11	+111%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 26	$30	+$17	+57%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5)	Jun 26	$20	+$6	+31%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 26	$5	−$5	-98%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan?	Jun 24	$6	−$6	-100%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5)	Jun 23	$40	+$18	+45%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan?	Jun 23	$6	−$6	-98%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$63	+$54	+86%
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5	Jun 23	$10	+$5	+48%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$41	−$16	-38%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla	Jun 21	$81	−$43	-54%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 21	$46	+$33	+73%
UFC 322: Makhachev vs. Della Maddalena (Welterweight, Main Card)	Nov 16	$65	+$7	+12%
UFC 322: Shevchenko vs. Weili (Women's Flyweight, Main Card)	Nov 15	$59	−$59	-100%
LoL: Gen.G vs T1 (BO1)	Oct 18	$10	−$10	-100%
LoL: CTBC Flying Oyster vs Anyone's Legend (BO3)	Oct 17	$82	+$32	+39%
Will Bitcoin hit $100k in 2024?	Oct 17	$1	−$1	-100%
LoL: PSG Talon vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO1)	Oct 17	$1	−$1	-100%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Fnatic (BO1)	Oct 17	$10	−$10	-100%
LoL: T1 vs CTBC Flying Oyster (BO1)	Oct 17	$80	−$80	-100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Top Esports (BO3)	Oct 17	$125	−$96	-76%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Gen.G (BO1)	Oct 16	$114	+$108	+94%
LoL: T1 vs Invictus Gaming (BO5)	Oct 14	$161	+$46	+29%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election?	Nov 06	$435	−$29	-7%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?	Nov 06	$657	+$116	+18%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 3.5	BUY Under	79¢	$50	1h
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 2 Canada?	BUY Yes	11¢	$3	1h
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 2 Canada?	BUY Yes	13¢	$3	1h
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 1 Canada?	BUY Yes	15¢	$3	1h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 3.5	BUY Under	79¢	$30	1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27?	SELL Yes	100¢	$51	14h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	19¢	$5	14h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	59¢	$30	24h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?	BUY No	23¢	$5	38h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	25¢	$5	38h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26?	BUY No	70¢	$10	38h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?	BUY No	25¢	$5	38h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?	BUY No	43¢	$10	2d
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	65¢	$20	2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?	BUY No	51¢	$3	2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?	BUY No	32¢	$2	2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?	BUY No	54¢	$5	2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?	BUY No	64¢	$10	2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?	BUY No	62¢	$5	2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?	BUY No	62¢	$5	2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	21¢	$5	2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?	BUY No	62¢	$10	2d
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5)	BUY Netherlands	76¢	$20	3d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5)	BUY Portugal	69¢	$20	5d
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan?	BUY Yes	16¢	$6	5d
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan?	BUY Yes	17¢	$6	5d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5)	BUY Portugal	68¢	$20	5d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22?	SELL Yes	100¢	$92	5d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	29¢	$10	5d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	29¢	$2	5d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $89.15 · official $89.15 (match) · 120 history records