Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T18:10:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9B 0x9bab…f109 crypto 1087 markets active 0h ago coverage 68d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,235 (-1%) realized −$1,234 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate69%753W / 333L
Whale WR55%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$83per market
Trades / day39.3pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$249
7 days−$249
14 days−$408
30 days−$1,049
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$3,161
sports 1% +$21
weather 0% −$61
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -18.4% -26.1% 57% 43% -43.1%
≤30d 101 -9.6% -18.2% 62% 41% -27.0%
≤90d 1086 -2.7% -12.0% 69% 40% -12.8%
all 1086 -2.7% -12.0% 69% 40% -12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover39.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.0% 40% -12.8%
10% ← realistic here -20.4% 23% -21.1%
15% -28.1% 11% -28.7%
20% -35.1% 6% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 55% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$46 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

68d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$1,234
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses753 / 333
Whale WR (big bets)55%
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1086 / 1087
History coverage68d
Avg bet$83
Trades / day39.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1086 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Up 99¢ 68¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-32%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 21 $205 −$152 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 21 $20 −$17 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 21 $13 +$7 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 21 $51 −$27 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 21 $25 +$3 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 20 $51 +$24 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 20 $51 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 20 $18 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 20 $25 +$6 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 20 $25 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 20 $25 +$8 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 20 $9 −$8 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 20 $101 −$49 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 20 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 09 $3 −$2 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 09 $3 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 08 $92 −$92 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 08 $104 −$104 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 08 $7 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 08 $3 +$3 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 08 $52 −$48 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 08 $103 +$52 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 08 $101 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 08 $51 +$18 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 08 $50 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 08 $102 +$37 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 08 $50 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 08 $51 +$14 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 08 $50 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 08 $51 −$31 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 08 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 08 $51 +$31 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 08 $51 −$16 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 08 $81 +$17 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 07 $51 +$17 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 07 $51 −$25 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 07 $25 −$5 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 07 $41 +$18 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 07 $40 +$6 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 07 $42 +$52 +125%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 07 $40 +$5 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 07 $31 +$12 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 07 $29 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 07 $30 −$9 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 07 $33 +$4 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 07 $33 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 07 $33 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 07 $52 −$32 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 07 $51 +$8 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 07 $50 −$50 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET SELL Down 8¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET SELL Up 45¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET SELL Up 30¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $28 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $75 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $51 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $25 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $25 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET SELL Up 83¢ $28 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $25 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $19 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $18 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $31 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $25 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $30 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $25 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $34 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $25 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET SELL Up 18¢ $1 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $3 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $3 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $3 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.36 · official $0.64 (match) · 2825 history records