Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T21:15:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
9B 0x9bab…e6a2 crypto 707 markets active 1h ago coverage 29d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$4,056 (-4%) realized −$3,580 · open +$17
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate81%548W / 126L
Whale WR61%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$142per market
Trades / day92.1pace
Fees−$22est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$574now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$5,827
14 days−$3,140
30 days−$3,580
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% −$7,335
crypto 17% +$3,684
world 16% +$151
politics 11% −$612
sports 3% +$552
finance 1% −$2
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 -24.9% -32.1% 54% 15% -33.7%
≤30d 674 -2.8% -12.1% 81% 30% -13.0%
≤90d 674 -2.8% -12.1% 81% 30% -13.0%
all 674 -2.8% -12.1% 81% 30% -13.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover92.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.1% 30% -13.0%
10% ← realistic here -20.5% 12% -21.3%
15% -28.2% 5% -28.9%
20% -35.2% 3% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 61% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +5% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$133 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

29d coverage
Net worth$574
Realized−$3,580
Unrealized+$17
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses548 / 126
Whale WR (big bets)61%
Est. fees paid−$22
Open positions32
Markets (closed)674 / 707
History coverage29d
Avg bet$142
Trades / day92.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 32 History 674 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? No 74¢ 86¢ $220 $258 +$38 (+17%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 No 77¢ 72¢ $178 $164 −$14 (-8%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026? No 67¢ 68¢ $90 $93 +$2 (+3%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? No 76¢ 95¢ $5 $7 +$1 (+26%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? No 95¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
Will Spencer Pratt concede by June 15? No 77¢ 74¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? No 96¢ 98¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? No 97¢ 97¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30? No 65¢ 66¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 8-14? No 88¢ 96¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+10%)
Will Trump and Putin not meet? Yes 95¢ 99¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+4%)
Will Julia Letlow be the republican nominee for Senate in Louisiana? Yes 95¢ 95¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 87¢ 78¢ $3 $2 −$0 (-11%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? Yes 50¢ 42¢ $3 $2 −$0 (-16%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? No 90¢ 94¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+5%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 67¢ 99¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+48%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? No 80¢ 97¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+21%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 92¢ 92¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Yes 73¢ 86¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+17%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $1 −$9 (-90%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026? No 65¢ 38¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-42%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 50¢ 86¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+71%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Yes 71¢ 66¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? No 50¢ 74¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+47%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 85¢ 84¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Jun 14 $26 −$18 -69%
Israel closes its airspace by June 13? Jun 14 $64 +$12 +18%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 13? Jun 14 $199 +$16 +8%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 13, 2026? Jun 14 $9 −$9 -97%
Israel closes its airspace by June 12? Jun 13 $133 +$10 +8%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 13 $200 −$13 -7%
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $3 $0 +12%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? Jun 12 $200 +$32 +16%
Israel closes its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $182 +$8 +4%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $216 +$58 +27%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 11 $780 −$150 -19%
Will Nithya Raman finish first in the first round of the 2026 Los Ange Jun 10 $1,504 +$7 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? Jun 10 $5 −$2 -40%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 9? Jun 10 $93 +$7 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Benin win on 2026-06-05? Jun 09 $934 −$934 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-04? Jun 09 $4,242 −$3,489 -82%
Will India win on 2026-06-05? Jun 09 $1,208 +$221 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Nithya Raman finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los Ang Jun 09 $301 +$10 +3%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 09 $268 −$267 -100%
Will Spencer Pratt finish first in the first round of the 2026 Los Ang Jun 09 $3,315 +$58 +2%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $256 +$3 +1%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $20 +$1 +3%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 08 $41 −$2 -4%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 08 $5,301 +$31 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $66 +$5 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 08 $2 −$2 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 08 $21 −$2 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 08 $25 −$14 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 08 $26 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 08 $41 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 08 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 08 $26 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 08 $10 +$2 +23%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $1,954 −$1,408 -72%
Will Karen Bass & Nithya Raman advance to the second round of the 2026 Jun 07 $126 +$4 +4%
Will Karen Bass finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los Angel Jun 07 $501 +$6 +1%
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $50 +$3 +7%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $251 −$83 -33%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 07 $20 +$1 +6%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? Jun 07 $7 −$7 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 06 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 06 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 06 $1 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 06 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 06 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 06 $1 $0 +23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? BUY No 80¢ $16 1h
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30? SELL No 66¢ $9 1h
Will Julia Letlow be the republican nominee for Senate in Louisiana? SELL Yes 95¢ $8 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? BUY No 79¢ $35 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 77¢ $35 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? BUY No 73¢ $46 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 76¢ $46 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? BUY No 73¢ $80 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 77¢ $62 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? SELL Yes 34¢ $19 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? BUY No 74¢ $14 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? BUY No 70¢ $4 1h
Will Spencer Pratt concede by June 15? SELL No 71¢ $15 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? BUY No 67¢ $25 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes 34¢ $3 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? SELL Yes 33¢ $20 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 86¢ $6 2h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL No 96¢ $5 2h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL No 96¢ $6 2h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? BUY Yes 73¢ $45 2h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL No 96¢ $39 2h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? SELL No 25¢ $6 2h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY No 77¢ $175 3h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL No 95¢ $154 3h
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY No 95¢ $3 9h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 70¢ $155 9h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? BUY Yes 50¢ $30 9h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? BUY No 90¢ $20 9h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 13, 2026? BUY No 27¢ $8 19h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 13, 2026? BUY No 16¢ $1 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $573.93 · official $572.21 (match) · 3500 history records