Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:36:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9B 0x9baa…4e52 other 245 markets active 1h ago coverage 136d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$77 (-0%) realized −$77 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate7%16W / 229L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$228per market
Trades / day9.7pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$18
14 days−$28
30 days−$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$41
sports 21% −$18
culture 8% −$8
economics 7% −$8
crypto 7% −$6
politics 6% −$4
world 4% −$2
tech 1% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 64 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 170 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
all 245 -0.2% -9.7% 7% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

136d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$77
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses16 / 229
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)245 / 245
History coverage136d
Avg bet$228
Trades / day9.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 245 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $975 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $274 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $195 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $450 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $216 −$1 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $191 $0 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 16 $228 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $410 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 16 $248 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $152 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $798 −$1 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $423 −$1 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 15 $721 −$2 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $720 −$1 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 14 $410 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $135 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $598 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $222 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $397 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $317 −$1 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $237 −$1 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 13 $395 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $282 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $391 −$1 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 11 $415 −$1 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $160 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 11 $791 −$1 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 09 $552 −$1 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $361 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 09 $332 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $134 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $339 −$1 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 08 $632 −$1 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 08 $488 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $524 −$1 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 07 $354 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $157 $0 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 05 $69 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $467 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $340 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $451 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 03 $229 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 01 $144 $0 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 01 $71 $0 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 31 $422 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $256 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 31 $607 −$1 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 30 $72 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? May 30 $280 −$1 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 29 $210 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $62 1h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $62 2h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $62 4h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $62 6h
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $7 7h
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $7 8h
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $62 10h
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $62 12h
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $62 16h
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $62 18h
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $62 19h
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 99¢ $62 21h
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $62 23h
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $62 25h
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $62 25h
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $62 26h
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? SELL No 99¢ $20 28h
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? BUY No 100¢ $20 29h
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $62 32h
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $63 33h
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $63 38h
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $63 40h
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $63 41h
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 99¢ $63 43h
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? SELL No 100¢ $63 44h
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? BUY No 100¢ $63 45h
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $63 2d
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $63 2d
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $63 2d
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $63 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1374 history records