Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:26:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
9B 0x9ba9…80a4 sports 36 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$12 (+9%) realized +$12 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate46%13W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day10.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 68% +$16
other 25% $0
world 4% $0
crypto 4% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -2.5% -11.8% 46% 46% +0.2%
≤30d 28 -2.5% -11.8% 46% 46% +0.2%
≤90d 28 -2.5% -11.8% 46% 46% +0.2%
all 28 -2.5% -11.8% 46% 46% +0.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.8% 46% +0.2%
10% -20.2% 43% -9.4%
15% -27.9% 39% -18.2%
20% -35.0% 32% -26.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +11% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -37% → late +32% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.57 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.36 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized+$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses13 / 15
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions8
Markets (closed)28 / 36
History coverage4d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day10.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Over 73¢ 74¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+1%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Yes 51¢ 50¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Over 49¢ 50¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+3%)
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Under 74¢ 72¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-2%)
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 Under 76¢ 76¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Under 55¢ 55¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Under 52¢ 50¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Under 62¢ 62¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$5 +93%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +70%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $1 +$2 +140%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $10 +$4 +42%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $20 +$4 +20%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $3 +$2 +57%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $3 +$2 +79%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 1 Scotland? Jun 14 $1 +$6 +550%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 1 Türkiye? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $2 +$2 +97%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $3 +$3 +105%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 +$5 +109%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $6 −$6 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $10 +$2 +24%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $10 +$4 +44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 62¢ $2 37m
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 76¢ $3 37m
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $5 39m
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $3 3h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $2 3h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 74¢ $4 3h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 49¢ $4 3h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 73¢ $6 3h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 41¢ $1 15h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $3 15h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $5 15h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 46¢ $5 15h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $1 15h
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 1 Ecuador? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 15h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 70¢ $10 15h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $23 15h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 58¢ $1 25h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 25h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 83¢ $20 27h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 29h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $1 29h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $3 29h
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 1 Türkiye? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 29h
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score BUY No 50¢ $2 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $3 2d
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 1 Scotland? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 2d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score BUY No 63¢ $3 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $6 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.76 · official $28.76 (match) · 54 history records