Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T03:52:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9B 0x9ba7…9321 weather 71 markets active 1h ago coverage 19d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,839 (-9%) realized −$1,839 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate48%34W / 37L
Whale WR77%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$283per market
Trades / day11.7pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$108
7 days−$1,475
14 days−$1,462
30 days−$1,875
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 80% −$226
tech 11% +$88
other 9% −$1,664
crypto 1% −$74
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -19.8% -27.4% 56% 25% -28.6%
≤30d 71 -2.7% -12.0% 48% 18% -18.2%
≤90d 71 -2.7% -12.0% 48% 18% -18.2%
all 71 -2.7% -12.0% 48% 18% -18.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.0% 18% -18.2%
10% -20.4% 8% -26.1%
15% -28.1% 6% -33.2%
20% -35.2% 6% -39.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
56% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 77% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$79 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.36 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,839
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses34 / 37
Whale WR (big bets)77%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)71 / 71
History coverage19d
Avg bet$283
Trades / day11.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 71 Trades
no open positions (11 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 19? Jun 19 $503 +$58 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 19? Jun 18 $503 −$5 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 18? Jun 18 $501 +$26 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 18? Jun 17 $447 +$55 +12%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $322 −$242 -75%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,425 −$1,421 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $251 −$73 -29%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 15? Jun 15 $212 −$60 -28%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $242 +$63 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 15? Jun 14 $100 +$5 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 15? Jun 14 $201 +$10 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $151 +$21 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $151 +$11 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -96%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 $0 -5%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Jun 12 $2,138 +$88 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $450 +$5 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 11? Jun 11 $349 −$59 -17%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 11? Jun 11 $157 −$2 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 11? Jun 11 $201 −$6 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 11? Jun 10 $301 −$8 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C on June 11? Jun 10 $131 −$14 -11%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 10? Jun 10 $100 +$5 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 10? Jun 10 $57 +$11 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 10? Jun 10 $161 −$6 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 10? Jun 10 $151 +$16 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 10? Jun 10 $202 −$12 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 9? Jun 09 $10 +$29 +276%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 9? Jun 09 $10 −$8 -77%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C or higher on June 9? Jun 09 $201 −$1 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 9? Jun 09 $10 +$18 +173%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C on June 9? Jun 09 $10 −$9 -86%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 9? Jun 08 $201 +$5 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on June 9? Jun 08 $201 +$10 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 9? Jun 08 $413 −$10 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 9? Jun 08 $10 −$10 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 8? Jun 08 $664 +$80 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 8? Jun 08 $201 +$12 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 8? Jun 08 $682 +$44 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 8? Jun 08 $403 +$64 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 8? Jun 08 $21 −$1 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 7? Jun 07 $301 −$261 -87%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 7? Jun 07 $502 +$15 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 7? Jun 07 $406 −$39 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C or higher on June 7? Jun 07 $301 +$15 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 7? Jun 06 $10 +$1 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 7? Jun 06 $6 −$2 -28%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 7? Jun 06 $10 −$2 -18%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 7? Jun 06 $10 −$1 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 7? Jun 06 $10 $0 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $560 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 19? BUY No 89¢ $503 18h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 19? SELL No 88¢ $9 20h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 19? SELL No 88¢ $490 20h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 19? BUY No 88¢ $503 23h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $527 24h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 18? BUY No 94¢ $501 27h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $503 28h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 24¢ $19 39h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $302 39h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 18? BUY No 88¢ $447 42h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $1,425 3d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 15? SELL No 69¢ $178 3d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 15? BUY Yes 48¢ $62 3d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 15? SELL No 61¢ $97 3d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 15? BUY No 95¢ $100 3d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 15? BUY No 95¢ $150 3d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 15? BUY No 92¢ $151 4d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $305 4d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 15? SELL No 98¢ $105 4d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $210 4d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 15? BUY No 95¢ $201 4d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 15? BUY No 93¢ $100 4d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $172 5d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 15? BUY No 80¢ $81 5d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 15? BUY No 77¢ $161 5d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $161 5d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 14? BUY No 93¢ $151 5d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 14? BUY No 87¢ $151 5d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 13? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 228 history records