Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T01:56:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9B 0x9ba0…5d22 crypto 88 markets active 1h ago coverage 237d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$4 (+0%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate99%82W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$71per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$20now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$7
other 0% −$6
tech 0% +$2
world 0% $0
politics 0% $0
finance 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 7 +1.9% -7.8% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 29 +0.7% -8.9% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 83 -0.3% -9.8% 99% 4% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 4% -9.5%
10% -18.4% 1% -18.1%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$6 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.68 per $1 lost it wins $1.68
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

237d coverage
Net worth$20
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)99%
Wins / losses82 / 1
Open positions5
Markets (closed)83 / 88
History coverage237d
Avg bet$71
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 83 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,400 by end of June? No 99¢ 99¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-0%)
Will US withdraw from NATO by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-0%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-0%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 96¢ 99¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+4%)
Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on June 5? Jun 16 $107 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Cont Jun 03 $2 $0 +2%
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on Jun 03 $3 $0 +8%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? Jun 03 $3 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $60 in May? Jun 03 $4 $0 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 22? Jun 03 $98 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 9? May 21 $101 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in April? May 04 $3 $0 +0%
Trump out as President by April 30? May 04 $5 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $40 in April? May 04 $5 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by April 30, 2026? May 04 $7 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on April 23? Apr 28 $96 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on April 19? Apr 22 $99 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $80,000 on April 15? Apr 18 $99 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 9? Apr 10 $110 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 6? Apr 09 $108 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on April 3? Apr 04 $107 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,500 on April 2? Apr 03 $93 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $150 in March? Apr 02 $2 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in March? Apr 02 $6 $0 +1%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of March? Apr 02 $6 $0 +0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,000 by end of March? Apr 02 $6 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,600 on March 31? Apr 01 $89 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $60,000 on March 27? Mar 29 $91 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $62,000 on March 25? Mar 26 $89 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 23? Mar 24 $90 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 21? Mar 22 $90 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 19? Mar 20 $87 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 16? Mar 18 $87 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 13? Mar 15 $108 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on March 11? Mar 12 $108 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 8? Mar 10 $106 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,500 and $1,600 on March 7? Mar 07 $107 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 27? Mar 06 $107 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 24? Feb 25 $108 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on February 22? Feb 23 $106 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,500 on February 20? Feb 21 $107 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 18? Feb 19 $105 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on February 1 Feb 17 $105 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 15? Feb 16 $105 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,500 on February 14? Feb 15 $108 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,500 on February 12? Feb 13 $107 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on February 10? Feb 10 $105 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on February 8? Feb 08 $104 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $90,000 and $92,000 on February 6 Feb 07 $107 $0 +0%
Zama FDV above $800M one day after launch? Feb 04 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $96,000 and $98,000 on February 3 Feb 04 $104 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in January? Feb 02 $3 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $98,000 on February 1? Feb 02 $104 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $100,000 on January 30? Jan 30 $104 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $3 1h
Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $2 1h
Will US withdraw from NATO by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $4 1h
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,400 by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $6 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $107 13d
Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Cont BUY Yes 98¢ $2 24d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $3 24d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $98 25d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 9? BUY Yes 100¢ $101 38d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 96¢ $3 41d
Will Solana dip to $60 in May? BUY No 97¢ $4 41d
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on BUY Yes 92¢ $3 41d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $3 52d
Trump out as President by April 30? BUY No 100¢ $5 52d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on April 23? BUY No 100¢ $96 54d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on April 19? BUY No 100¢ $99 58d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $80,000 on April 15? BUY No 100¢ $99 63d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $40 in April? BUY No 99¢ $5 66d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by April 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $7 66d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 9? BUY No 100¢ $110 67d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 6? BUY No 100¢ $108 72d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on April 3? BUY No 100¢ $107 73d
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,500 on April 2? BUY No 100¢ $93 75d
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,600 on March 31? BUY No 100¢ $89 78d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $60,000 on March 27? BUY No 100¢ $91 81d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $62,000 on March 25? BUY No 100¢ $89 83d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 23? BUY No 100¢ $90 85d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 21? BUY No 100¢ $90 87d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $87 89d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 16? BUY No 100¢ $87 92d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.50 · official $19.50 (match) · 171 history records