Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T10:51:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9B 0x9b9e…d46a politics 20 markets active 1h ago coverage 130d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate15%3W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$110per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 47% −$1
other 47% $0
sports 5% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 4 -0.0% -9.5% 25% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 11 +0.0% -9.5% 18% 0% -9.5%
all 20 -0.0% -9.5% 15% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 0% -9.5%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 81% · top 2 93% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×2.62 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

130d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses3 / 17
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)20 / 20
History coverage130d
Avg bet$110
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 20 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $116 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $116 $0 +0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun 03 $116 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 28 $116 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $116 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 16 $115 +$1 +1%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? May 13 $115 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $115 $0 -0%
Will Kang Hoon-sik win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 16 $116 $0 +0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 07 $117 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 30 $117 $0 +0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 20 $117 $0 +0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 15 $117 $0 +0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 08 $117 $0 +0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 06 $116 $0 +0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 05 $117 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 04 $117 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 24 $117 $0 +0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 18 $29 $0 +0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 18 $88 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $116 1h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $116 14h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $116 10d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $116 11d
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on SELL No 100¢ $116 19d
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on BUY No 100¢ $116 20d
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $116 26d
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $116 26d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $116 35d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $116 35d
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $115 38d
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $115 41d
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $115 41d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $115 45d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $115 46d
Will Kang Hoon-sik win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL No 100¢ $116 67d
Will Kang Hoon-sik win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 100¢ $116 68d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $116 76d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $117 77d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $117 84d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $117 85d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $117 95d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $117 95d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $117 99d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $117 100d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $117 106d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $117 107d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $116 108d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $116 109d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $116 109d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 63 history records