Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T12:53:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
9B 0x9b9e…c76e crypto 52 markets active 1h ago coverage 548d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$164 (+7%) realized +$164 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate61%31W / 20L
Drawdown65%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$109now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 50% +$137
other 46% −$5
sports 1% +$8
politics 1% +$1
culture 1% $0
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.3% -9.2% 57% 57% -11.2%
≤30d 7 +0.3% -9.2% 57% 57% -11.2%
≤90d 18 +2.4% -7.4% 56% 39% -18.6%
all 51 +1.6% -8.1% 61% 35% -4.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.1% 35% -4.4%
10% -16.9% 33% -13.6%
15% -24.9% 27% -21.9%
20% -32.3% 27% -29.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$21 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.34 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

548d coverage
Net worth$109
Realized+$164
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses31 / 20
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)51 / 52
History coverage548d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown65%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 51 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Yes 58¢ 56¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 20 $26 +$26 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 20 $26 +$24 +92%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 20 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 20 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 20 $27 +$20 +74%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 20 $26 −$25 -97%
Valencia: Roberto Bautista Agut vs Pedro Martinez Jun 20 $8 +$2 +29%
LoL: Team WE vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 13 $1 +$4 +365%
Will TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET May 02 $18 −$17 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 2, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET May 02 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET May 02 $91 +$7 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET May 02 $50 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET May 02 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET May 02 $10 +$4 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET May 02 $101 +$7 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down on May 1? May 02 $10 +$2 +23%
La Bisbal: Lucrezia Stefanini vs Tamara Korpatsch Apr 27 $10 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Mar 22 $50 +$36 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Mar 21 $30 −$30 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Mar 21 $50 −$50 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 21, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Mar 21 $50 +$31 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Mar 21 $50 +$43 +86%
XRP Up or Down - March 21, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Mar 21 $50 −$49 -98%
Solana Up or Down - March 21, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Mar 21 $2 −$2 -100%
BNB Up or Down - March 21, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Mar 21 $24 −$24 -100%
BNB Up or Down - March 21, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Mar 21 $30 +$26 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Mar 21 $50 −$49 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Mar 21 $50 +$53 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Mar 21 $50 +$38 +75%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 21, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Mar 21 $50 +$38 +76%
Knicks vs. Nets Mar 21 $13 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Mar 21 $50 +$40 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Mar 21 $10 −$10 -99%
XRP Up or Down - March 20, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Mar 21 $60 +$48 +80%
Solana Up or Down - March 20, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Mar 21 $50 −$49 -98%
Will "My Secret Santa" be the top global Netflix movie this week? (Dec Feb 26 $17 $0 +0%
Will MrBeast hit 102.5 billion views by December 31? Dec 09 $13 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - December 8, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Dec 09 $107 +$103 +96%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on November 14? Nov 20 $13 $0 +0%
US tariff revenue up in Q3 2025? Nov 11 $13 $0 -1%
Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch? Nov 06 $14 −$1 -9%
Will there be a Powerball jackpot winner by September 28? Oct 20 $14 $0 +3%
Will Olympique Lyon play in Ligue 1? Sep 03 $14 $0 +1%
Plasma >$800M market cap (FDV) one day after launch? Jul 14 $14 $0 +3%
Israel strike on Iran on June 19? Jul 03 $13 $0 +1%
Will the Liberal–National Coalition win less than 45 seats? Jun 19 $13 $0 +2%
Will Sweden finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10? May 16 $13 $0 -2%
Will Union win the most seats in the next German election? Apr 20 $13 +$1 +5%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Jan 26 $12 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $26 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $26 45m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET SELL Up 91¢ $47 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $26 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 5h
Valencia: Roberto Bautista Agut vs Pedro Martinez BUY Roberto Bautista Agut 77¢ $8 37d
LoL: Team WE vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend BUY Team WE 21¢ $1 45d
Will TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win on 2026-05-02? BUY Yes 85¢ $5 48d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $18 48d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 2, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $2 48d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $33 48d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $30 48d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET SELL Up 87¢ $30 48d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $30 48d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET SELL Up 79¢ $36 48d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $31 48d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $25 48d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $25 48d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET SELL Up 85¢ $27 48d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $25 48d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $51 48d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET SELL Down 70¢ $14 48d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $10 48d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET SELL Up 78¢ $54 48d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $51 48d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET SELL Up 82¢ $55 48d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $109.49 · official $109.50 (match) · 139 history records