Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T09:53:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9B 0x9b9a…9093 other 42 markets active 1h ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$138 (+13%) realized +$139 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate70%16W / 7L
Drawdown4%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day16.2pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$541now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$101
7 days+$98
14 days+$98
30 days+$98
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% +$97
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -3.7% -12.8% 70% 35% +11.3%
≤30d 23 -3.7% -12.8% 70% 35% +11.3%
≤90d 23 -3.7% -12.8% 70% 35% +11.3%
all 23 -3.7% -12.8% 70% 35% +11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.8% 35% +11.3%
10% -21.2% 22% +0.6%
15% -28.8% 13% -9.1%
20% -35.8% 4% -18.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 60% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +23% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +23% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late +11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$1 · ×7.92 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×18.1 per $1 lost it wins $18.1
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$541
Realized+$139
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses16 / 7
Open positions19
Markets (closed)23 / 42
History coverage12d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day16.2
Drawdown4%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 19 History 23 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 59¢ 61¢ $66 $69 +$3 (+4%)
Will Spain reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 42¢ 46¢ $56 $62 +$5 (+10%)
Will England reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 38¢ 36¢ $62 $59 −$3 (-4%)
Will England reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 81¢ 90¢ $52 $58 +$5 (+10%)
Will Spain reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 56¢ 62¢ $52 $57 +$5 (+9%)
Will England reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 24¢ 22¢ $57 $55 −$3 (-5%)
Will Spain reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 23¢ 24¢ $46 $47 +$0 (+0%)
Will Spain reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 74¢ 84¢ $39 $45 +$6 (+14%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $37 $33 −$4 (-11%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 11¢ $36 $28 −$9 (-23%)
Will Portugal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 70¢ 67¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-4%)
Will Portugal reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 27¢ 22¢ $8 $6 −$2 (-22%)
Will Portugal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 43¢ 26¢ $9 $5 −$3 (-39%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $4 $4 −$1 (-13%)
Will Portugal reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 16¢ 12¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-27%)
Will Belgium reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-32%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 90¢ 79¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-13%)
Will Brazil reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 67¢ 73¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+9%)
Will Senegal reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $0 −$0 (-23%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 21¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+81%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 28 $53 +$31 +58%
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $68 +$22 +33%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $2 $0 -21%
Will Senegal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $3 $0 +14%
Will Senegal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $4 +$1 +17%
Will Brazil reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 28 $4 −$1 -16%
Will Brazil reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $4 +$1 +16%
Will Brazil reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $5 $0 -3%
Will Belgium reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $4 −$1 -24%
Will Belgium reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $6 $0 +8%
Will Belgium reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $7 $0 +2%
Will Argentina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $65 +$32 +48%
Will Argentina reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $49 +$11 +23%
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 27 $6 +$3 +43%
Will Belgium advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 27 $4 $0 +4%
Will Portugal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 27 $8 +$1 +6%
Will England advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 27 $40 +$1 +2%
Will Spain advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $39 +$1 +3%
Will Brazil advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $4 $0 +3%
Will Argentina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C Jun 22 $48 $0 +0%
Will Uruguay reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Uruguay reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Uruguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 22 $2 −$1 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL Yes 33¢ $25 1h
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 81¢ $34 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $2 2h
Will Senegal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $4 2h
Will Senegal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 38¢ $4 2h
Will Brazil reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL Yes 15¢ $3 2h
Will Brazil reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 29¢ $4 2h
Will Brazil reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 48¢ $5 2h
Will Belgium reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $3 2h
Will Belgium reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 32¢ $6 2h
Will Belgium reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 60¢ $7 2h
Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL Yes 39¢ $19 2h
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 82¢ $4 2h
Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL Yes 39¢ $19 2h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 21¢ $49 2h
Will Argentina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 64¢ $74 2h
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 82¢ $29 2h
Will Argentina reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 92¢ $43 2h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 15h
Will England reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 15h
Will England reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 37¢ $6 15h
Will England reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 58¢ $6 15h
Will England reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 82¢ $5 15h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 19¢ $16 15h
Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL Yes 33¢ $21 15h
Will Argentina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 51¢ $22 15h
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 78¢ $24 15h
Will Argentina reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 93¢ $16 15h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 2d
Will England reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $541.02 · official $540.51 (match) · 208 history records