Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T03:27:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
9B 0x9b98…aa35 other 302 markets active 1h ago coverage 394d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$988 (-8%) realized −$969 · open −$19
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate69%206W / 93L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$41now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$43
7 days−$30
14 days−$55
30 days−$100
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 58% −$997
sports 29% −$32
world 5% −$45
politics 3% −$2
crypto 2% −$17
tech 2% +$9
culture 1% +$18
finance 0% +$9
economics 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-15.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +13.6% +2.8% 75% 75% -37.8%
≤30d 10 -3.2% -12.4% 60% 60% -46.7%
≤90d 52 -0.5% -10.0% 67% 63% -12.2%
all 299 -6.5% -15.4% 69% 50% -17.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.4% 50% -17.1%
10% -23.5% 36% -25.0%
15% -30.9% 21% -32.3%
20% -37.7% 10% -38.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$33 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

394d coverage
Net worth$41
Realized−$969
Unrealized−$19
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses206 / 93
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions3
Markets (closed)299 / 302
History coverage394d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 299 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to Advance Morocco 49¢ 50¢ $25 $26 +$1 (+3%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? No 93¢ 96¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+3%)
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score No 83¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 29 $25 +$7 +29%
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance Jun 29 $50 −$50 -100%
Uruguay vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score Jun 27 $10 +$9 +93%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 3.5 Jun 27 $10 +$3 +32%
UD Almería vs. Málaga CF: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $25 −$25 -98%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $8 +$13 +158%
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $10 +$3 +31%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $55 −$55 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $15 −$15 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Jesper de Jong vs Alexander Zverev May 31 $35 +$9 +24%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $35 −$35 -100%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 3.5 May 30 $80 +$15 +18%
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic May 29 $50 −$50 -100%
Will RC Deportivo La Coruña win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $50 +$4 +7%
Real Valladolid CF vs. RC Deportivo La Coruña: O/U 3.5 May 24 $25 +$9 +36%
Real Valladolid CF vs. RC Deportivo La Coruña: Both Teams to Score May 24 $47 +$46 +98%
RCD Mallorca vs. Real Oviedo: Both Teams to Score May 24 $30 +$20 +67%
Deportivo Alavés vs. FC Barcelona: Both Teams to Score May 14 $10 +$5 +52%
Deportivo Alavés vs. FC Barcelona: O/U 2.5 May 14 $15 +$2 +14%
Manchester City FC vs. Crystal Palace FC: Both Teams to Score May 13 $25 +$25 +97%
Will Sevilla be relegated from La Liga after the 2025–26 season? May 13 $118 +$11 +9%
Will Real Racing Club win on 2026-05-10? May 12 $15 +$6 +40%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? May 12 $20 +$2 +12%
Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: Both Teams to Score May 06 $25 +$9 +38%
Sevilla FC vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol: Both Teams to Score May 04 $40 +$17 +42%
Will Everton FC win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $20 −$20 -99%
RC Deportivo La Coruña vs. CD Leganés: O/U 1.5 May 01 $25 −$25 -99%
FC Barcelona vs. RC Celta de Vigo: Both Teams to Score Apr 27 $30 +$11 +38%
RC Deportivo La Coruña vs. CD Mirandés: Both Teams to Score Apr 21 $20 −$20 -100%
RC Deportivo La Coruña vs. CD Mirandés: O/U 3.5 Apr 21 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? Apr 18 $24 −$24 -100%
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol: O/U 4.5 Apr 18 $30 +$11 +36%
Will SS Lazio win on 2026-04-18? Apr 18 $50 +$11 +21%
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-04-18? Apr 18 $25 −$25 -100%
SD Huesca vs. RC Deportivo La Coruña: Both Teams to Score Apr 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. FC Barcelona: O/U 4.5 Apr 15 $20 +$17 +86%
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-04-13? Apr 14 $20 +$10 +48%
Real Madrid CF vs. Girona FC: Both Teams to Score Apr 13 $30 −$30 -100%
Perth Glory FC vs. Macarthur FC: O/U 1.5 Apr 13 $6 +$2 +39%
Will Real Racing Club win on 2026-04-12? Apr 13 $50 +$9 +17%
Real Madrid CF vs. Girona FC: O/U 3.5 Apr 10 $35 +$22 +62%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $50 +$25 +50%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-07? Apr 08 $26 +$14 +55%
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. FC Barcelona: O/U 3.5 Apr 05 $23 +$18 +76%
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. FC Barcelona: Both Teams to Score Apr 04 $15 −$15 -98%
Will RC Deportivo La Coruña vs. Málaga CF end in a draw? Apr 04 $10 +$5 +50%
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-04-04? Apr 04 $25 +$6 +24%
Real Madrid CF vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 4.5 Apr 03 $7 −$7 -100%
CD Castellón vs. UD Almería: Both Teams to Score Apr 03 $24 +$18 +77%
Will Real Racing Club win on 2026-04-01? Apr 01 $33 −$19 -58%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY No 83¢ $20 1h
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to Advance BUY Morocco 49¢ $25 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 77¢ $25 5h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Germany 84¢ $50 5h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 75¢ $10 3d
Uruguay vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score BUY No 51¢ $10 3d
UD Almería vs. Málaga CF: Both Teams to Score BUY No 49¢ $25 9d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 38¢ $8 14d
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 76¢ $10 15d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 80¢ $10 15d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY No 54¢ $15 16d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 81¢ $45 16d
Roland Garros ATP: Jesper de Jong vs Alexander Zverev BUY Alexander Zverev 80¢ $35 29d
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 84¢ $80 30d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 62¢ $35 30d
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic BUY Novak Djokovic 92¢ $50 31d
Will RC Deportivo La Coruña win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 93¢ $50 36d
Real Valladolid CF vs. RC Deportivo La Coruña: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 73¢ $25 36d
Real Valladolid CF vs. RC Deportivo La Coruña: Both Teams to Score BUY No 50¢ $47 36d
RCD Mallorca vs. Real Oviedo: Both Teams to Score BUY No 59¢ $30 37d
Deportivo Alavés vs. FC Barcelona: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 87¢ $15 47d
Deportivo Alavés vs. FC Barcelona: Both Teams to Score BUY No 65¢ $10 47d
Manchester City FC vs. Crystal Palace FC: Both Teams to Score SELL No 100¢ $50 47d
Will Sevilla be relegated from La Liga after the 2025–26 season? SELL No 93¢ $128 47d
Manchester City FC vs. Crystal Palace FC: Both Teams to Score BUY No 50¢ $25 47d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? BUY No 93¢ $15 50d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? BUY Yes 89¢ $20 50d
Will Real Racing Club win on 2026-05-10? BUY Yes 71¢ $15 50d
Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: Both Teams to Score BUY No 72¢ $25 55d
Sevilla FC vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol: Both Teams to Score SELL No 100¢ $57 56d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.23 · official $40.72 (match) · 671 history records