Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T17:00:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

9B
0x9b98…e05a
weather · 19 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$2 -7%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$2 · open +$3
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY weather specialist⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$24
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses1 / 2
Open positions16
Markets (closed)3 / 19
History coverage5d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%
Chart Positions 16 History 3 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 14? No 33¢ 100¢ $2 $6 +$4 (+202%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 14? No 44¢ 100¢ $2 $5 +$3 (+129%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 14? No 44¢ 51¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+16%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 14? No 36¢ 42¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+15%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 14? No 25¢ 26¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on June 14? No 32¢ 24¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 88-89°F on June 14? No 29¢ 24¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-17%)
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 15? No 25¢ 22¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-10%)
Will there be at least 3000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? No 17¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 14? No 21¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-21%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 14? No 7¢ 6¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Will Seoul have less than 100mm of precipitation in June? Yes 27¢ 15¢ $1 $1 −$1 (-45%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 14? No 0¢ 10¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 14? No 6¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-95%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on June 14? No 22¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-98%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 14? No 14¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-98%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 11? Yes 34¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 10? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 71°F or below on June Jun 11 $5 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 10? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 11? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 92% +$2
other 8% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 14? BUY No 20¢ $1 0m
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 14? BUY No 44¢ $2 27m
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 15? BUY No 25¢ $1 27m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 14? BUY No 7¢ $1 28m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 14? BUY No 44¢ $2 58m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju BUY No 32¢ $2 58m
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 14? BUY No 36¢ $2 59m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 14? BUY No 25¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on June 14? BUY No 22¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 14? BUY No 6¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 14? BUY No 33¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 88-89°F on June 14? BUY No 29¢ $2 1h
Will Seoul have less than 100mm of precipitation in June? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 14? BUY No 21¢ $1 2h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 14? BUY No 14¢ $1 2h
Will there be at least 3000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? BUY No 17¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 71°F or below on June BUY No 91¢ $5 4d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 10? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 11? BUY Yes 34¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-67.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -63.5% -67.0% 33% 0% -29.9%
≤30d 3 -63.5% -67.0% 33% 0% -29.9%
≤90d 3 -63.5% -67.0% 33% 0% -29.9%
all 3 -63.5% -67.0% 33% 0% -29.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -67.0% 0% -29.9%
10% -70.2% 0% -36.6%
15% -73.0% 0% -42.7%
20% -75.7% 0% -48.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.37 · official $24.29 (match) · 20 history records