Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:52:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
9B 0x9b97…6a09 sports 44 markets active 1h ago coverage 65d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$2,596 (-10%) realized +$117 · open −$2,713
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR61%break-even
Win rate61%23W / 15L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$583per market
Trades / day4.9pace
Fees−$52est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$13,936now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$834
7 days+$1,038
14 days+$1,131
30 days+$1,131
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 69% −$2,708
other 15% −$333
sports 14% +$726
world 1% −$8
crypto 1% −$145
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +61%
net ROI/market (all)+1.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 +18.5% +7.2% 63% 63% +7.2%
≤30d 32 +23.0% +11.3% 66% 66% +8.3%
≤90d 38 +12.0% +1.3% 61% 61% -6.5%
all 38 +12.0% +1.3% 61% 61% -6.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.3% 61% -6.5%
10% -8.4% 61% -15.5%
15% -17.2% 55% -23.6%
20% -25.3% 39% -31.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +2% → late +22% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$120 vs −$168 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

65d coverage
Net worth$13,936
Realized+$117
Unrealized−$2,713
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses23 / 15
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$52
Open positions6
Markets (closed)38 / 44
History coverage65d
Avg bet$583
Trades / day4.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 31¢ 26¢ $15,456 $12,790 −$2,667 (-17%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $601 $601 −$0 (-0%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Yes 37¢ 36¢ $353 $343 −$10 (-3%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $170 $165 −$5 (-3%)
Will Neymar score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 30¢ 31¢ $35 $37 +$1 (+3%)
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 0¢ $33 $0 −$32 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $120 +$48 +40%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $141 +$59 +42%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 +$16 +79%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $41 −$40 -97%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $186 +$129 +69%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $400 +$112 +28%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $37 +$63 +170%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 16 $31 −$30 -96%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $527 +$502 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$9 +166%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $452 +$164 +36%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $4 +$2 +34%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele Jun 16 $616 −$41 -7%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $118 +$98 +83%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $804 +$407 +51%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $598 −$589 -99%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $24 −$23 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $162 +$58 +36%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $111 +$61 +54%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $552 +$604 +109%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 13 $2 +$6 +325%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 12 $104 −$100 -96%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Katie Boulter Jun 12 $280 −$280 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron Jun 12 $31 −$31 -100%
Ilkley: Tatiana Prozorova vs Sinja Kraus Jun 12 $19 +$11 +59%
New York Liberty vs. Atlanta Dream Jun 12 $26 −$26 -98%
Cattolica: Dusan Lajovic vs Oriol Roca Batalla Jun 12 $17 +$7 +39%
Tucuman: Federico Coria vs Andrea Collarini Jun 11 $148 −$146 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $35 +$15 +43%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $41 +$53 +129%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 11 $76 +$40 +53%
Will Club Nacional de Football win on 2026-04-29? Apr 30 $645 −$642 -100%
Will Racing Club win on 2026-04-29? Apr 29 $285 −$285 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28? Apr 28 $407 +$278 +68%
Will CA San Lorenzo de Almagro win on 2026-04-28? Apr 28 $140 −$140 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28? Apr 28 $130 −$127 -97%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-15? Apr 16 $55 +$29 +52%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Neymar score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 32¢ $20 43m
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $31 1h
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 25¢ $31 1h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $3 1h
Will Neymar score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 32¢ $2 4h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $109 5h
Will Neymar score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 30¢ $0 5h
Will Neymar score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 30¢ $56 5h
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 25¢ $1,076 7h
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 25¢ $3 7h
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 25¢ $1 7h
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 25¢ $1 7h
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 25¢ $1 7h
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 25¢ $1 7h
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 25¢ $1 7h
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 25¢ $1 7h
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 25¢ $14 7h
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 25¢ $38 7h
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 25¢ $1 7h
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 25¢ $1 7h
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 25¢ $2 7h
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 25¢ $7 8h
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 25¢ $24 8h
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 25¢ $24 8h
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 25¢ $1 8h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $147 8h
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 8h
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 25¢ $630 8h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $120 21h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $21 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13,935.72 · official $13,935.72 (match) · 350 history records