Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T22:51:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9B 0x9b97…77da sports 170 markets active 1h ago coverage 89d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
Total PnL −$878 (-29%) realized −$895 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate35%59W / 110L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day4.2pace
Fees−$43est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$30
14 days−$69
30 days−$165
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 86% −$684
other 9% −$115
crypto 4% −$93
economics 0% −$3
world 0% −$1
finance 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-29.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -7.9% -16.6% 33% 30% -23.3%
≤30d 93 -18.4% -26.2% 31% 30% -27.4%
≤90d 169 -22.5% -29.9% 35% 32% -37.4%
all 169 -22.5% -29.9% 35% 32% -37.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.9% 32% -37.4%
10% -36.6% 29% -43.4%
15% -42.7% 24% -48.9%
20% -48.4% 20% -53.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -32% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -32% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -26% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$13 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.4 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

89d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$895
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses59 / 110
Est. fees paid−$43
Open positions1
Markets (closed)169 / 170
History coverage89d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 169 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 7.5 Over 47¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Al Ittihad Saudi Club win on 2026-04-03? No 27¢ $60 $0 −$60 (-100%)
Spread: Al Ittihad Saudi Club (-1.5) Al Ittihad Saudi Club 50¢ $60 $0 −$60 (-100%)
Trail Blazers vs. Clippers Clippers 65¢ $198 $0 −$198 (-100%)
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5 Under 51¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5 Over 44¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Set 1 Winner: Fokina vs Dzumhur Fokina 75¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins Philadelphia Phillies 46¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting? No $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Spread: Knicks (-13.5) Bulls 49¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 1PM ET Up 43¢ $96 $0 −$96 (-100%)
St. John's Red Storm vs. Duke Blue Devils St. Johns Red Storm 29¢ $17 $0 −$17 (-100%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5 Over 49¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Lakers vs. Thunder Lakers 25¢ $49 $0 −$49 (-100%)
Set 1 Winner: Samsonova vs Teichmann Samsonova 71¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Spread: Hornets (-5.5) Suns 49¢ $49 $0 −$49 (-100%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-03-31? No 50¢ $49 $0 −$49 (-100%)
Cleveland Guardians vs. Athletics Athletics 49¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Set 1 Winner: Chwalinska vs Zheng Zheng 67¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
CA San Lorenzo de Almagro vs. Estudiantes de La Plata: O/U 3.5 Over 13¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will SS Lazio win on 2026-05-04? No 61¢ $17 $0 −$17 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: ODDIK vs Fake do Biru (BO3) - PGL Astana: South American Closed Qualifier Playoffs Fake do Biru 30¢ $29 $0 −$29 (-100%)
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 Over 43¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win on 2026-05-23? Yes 40¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$4 -78%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Las Vegas Aces Jun 14 $5 +$4 +70%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 +$3 +55%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury Jun 14 $10 −$5 -51%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 $0 -6%
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics Jun 13 $10 −$3 -32%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $5 +$3 +65%
New York Liberty vs. Atlanta Dream Jun 12 $5 +$7 +140%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Dallas Wings Jun 12 $5 +$2 +40%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 10 $5 +$4 +70%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 10 $5 +$5 +93%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 10 $5 −$3 -67%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $5 −$3 -54%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 10 $5 −$3 -61%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 10 $5 −$3 -56%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 09 $5 −$3 -60%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 09 $5 −$3 -62%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 09 $14 −$3 -22%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 09 $14 +$1 +9%
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 09 $7 −$2 -27%
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 09 $7 −$4 -51%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 09 $7 +$7 +97%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 09 $14 −$11 -78%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 09 $14 −$8 -57%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 09 $7 $0 -3%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 08 $7 −$4 -53%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 08 $7 −$2 -33%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 07 $7 −$3 -46%
Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 07 $7 −$3 -43%
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 07 $7 +$6 +80%
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 07 $7 +$2 +35%
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 07 $7 −$2 -30%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers Jun 07 $7 −$2 -28%
UFC Fight Night: Priscila Cachoeira vs. Chelsea Chandler (Women's Bant Jun 07 $7 $0 -6%
UFC Fight Night: Bruno Silva vs. Édgar Cháirez (Flyweight, Prelims) Jun 07 $7 +$7 +103%
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main Jun 07 $7 −$1 -9%
UFC Fight Night: Brendan Allen vs. Edmen Shahbazyan (Middleweight, Mai Jun 07 $7 −$2 -34%
UFC Fight Night: Bryce Mitchell vs. Santiago Luna (Bantamweight, Main Jun 07 $7 −$1 -9%
UFC Fight Night: Joanderson Brito vs. Jordan Leavitt (Featherweight, P Jun 06 $7 −$7 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $7 −$3 -43%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 05 $7 −$1 -9%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Jun 05 $7 −$4 -61%
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5 Jun 04 $7 −$3 -48%
Spurs vs. Thunder Jun 03 $10 −$1 -8%
Roland Garros WTA: Anna Kalinskaya vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 03 $7 −$7 -99%
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5 Jun 02 $7 −$7 -99%
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5 Jun 02 $7 −$7 -99%
Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets May 31 $7 $0 -6%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles May 30 $7 +$7 +105%
Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets May 30 $7 +$5 +66%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $5 58m
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 11¢ $1 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 49¢ $5 2h
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury SELL Los Angeles Sparks 23¢ $2 18h
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury SELL Phoenix Mercury 28¢ $3 19h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 56¢ $5 19h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $5 24h
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury BUY Phoenix Mercury 48¢ $5 26h
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury BUY Los Angeles Sparks 53¢ $5 26h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $5 27h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Las Vegas Aces BUY Las Vegas Aces 58¢ $5 28h
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics SELL Toronto Tempo 21¢ $2 46h
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics SELL Washington Mystics 54¢ $5 2d
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics BUY Washington Mystics 56¢ $5 2d
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics BUY Toronto Tempo 47¢ $5 2d
Phoenix Mercury vs. Dallas Wings BUY Dallas Wings 71¢ $5 2d
New York Liberty vs. Atlanta Dream BUY New York Liberty 41¢ $5 3d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Hurricanes 60¢ $5 3d
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres SELL Cincinnati Reds 26¢ $2 4d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics SELL Milwaukee Brewers 21¢ $2 4d
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles SELL Seattle Mariners 18¢ $2 4d
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres BUY Cincinnati Reds 55¢ $5 4d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates SELL Pittsburgh Pirates 24¢ $2 4d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics BUY Milwaukee Brewers 52¢ $5 4d
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays SELL Boston Red Sox 22¢ $2 4d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Hurricanes 51¢ $5 4d
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians SELL Cleveland Guardians 19¢ $2 4d
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Boston Red Sox 53¢ $5 5d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 52¢ $5 5d
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Cleveland Guardians 48¢ $5 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.95 · official $4.95 (match) · 448 history records