Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T19:48:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
9B 0x9b97…91fe sports 91 markets active 1h ago coverage 137d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$368 (+3%) realized +$426 · open −$58
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate55%49W / 40L
Drawdown61%max
Avg bet$154per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$95est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$66now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$136
7 days−$363
14 days−$242
30 days−$242
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 57% −$197
world 40% +$626
other 3% −$194
politics 0% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -4.4% -13.5% 43% 29% -22.7%
≤30d 23 -0.8% -10.2% 57% 43% -16.4%
≤90d 59 -1.8% -11.2% 59% 39% -10.7%
all 89 -3.0% -12.2% 55% 39% -7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.2% 39% -7.6%
10% -20.6% 25% -16.5%
15% -28.3% 12% -24.5%
20% -35.3% 6% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$31 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.23 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

137d coverage
Net worth$66
Realized+$426
Unrealized−$58
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses49 / 40
Est. fees paid−$95
Open positions2
Markets (closed)89 / 91
History coverage137d
Avg bet$154
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown61%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 89 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Team Falcons 59¢ 42¢ $93 $66 −$28 (-30%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Team Falcons 38¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $22 +$3 +12%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $7 +$15 +206%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $372 −$154 -41%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $114 +$47 +41%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $44 −$43 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $119 −$75 -63%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 15 $123 −$4 -4%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $435 −$112 -26%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $101 −$65 -64%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $161 −$3 -2%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 15 $384 +$32 +8%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $65 −$33 -51%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $482 +$16 +3%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $70 +$12 +18%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $40 +$12 +29%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $40 +$11 +27%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $100 +$4 +4%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $50 +$11 +21%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $71 +$25 +36%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $50 +$18 +36%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $271 +$86 +32%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 07 $37 −$16 -42%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 07 $31 −$30 -98%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Playoffs May 17 $21 +$10 +48%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Play May 17 $50 +$21 +42%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Natus Vincere - Map 2 Winner May 17 $151 +$29 +19%
Counter-Strike: magic vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner May 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner May 16 $119 −$71 -59%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner May 16 $161 +$42 +26%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Playoffs May 16 $576 +$1 +0%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner May 15 $60 +$20 +33%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner May 14 $60 −$60 -99%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner May 13 $116 +$16 +14%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner May 13 $67 +$4 +6%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Liquid (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group B May 13 $306 −$2 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 10 $166 +$24 +15%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? May 10 $72 −$72 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs 9z (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 10 $722 −$116 -16%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Passion UA (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group May 10 $142 −$1 -1%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Monte (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 09 $221 +$62 +28%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026? May 09 $216 +$5 +2%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality (BO5) - BLAST Rivals Playoff May 03 $190 +$99 +52%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 03 $81 −$5 -6%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs FURIA (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group B May 01 $205 −$18 -9%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Apr 29 $93 +$6 +6%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? Apr 18 $155 −$42 -27%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Rio Playoffs Apr 18 $200 +$51 +26%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Rio Playoffs Apr 18 $70 −$25 -36%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 18 $275 +$4 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 16 $319 +$56 +17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 59¢ $94 53m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 38¢ $31 53m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL Team Falcons 54¢ $4 58m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Falcons 23¢ $36 59m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 31¢ $51 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL Team Falcons 56¢ $136 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 65¢ $166 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL Team Falcons 62¢ $166 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 42¢ $91 3h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 42¢ $25 4h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL FURIA 100¢ $25 4h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY FURIA 89¢ $22 4h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $22 20h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 32¢ $7 24h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL 9z 3¢ $7 47h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 75¢ $8 2d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 74¢ $171 2d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL 9z 67¢ $128 2d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 52¢ $101 2d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL FURIA 49¢ $53 2d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 55¢ $30 2d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 54¢ $30 2d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL FURIA 53¢ $17 2d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 61¢ $20 2d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL 9z 34¢ $13 2d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 26¢ $10 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Aurora Gaming 100¢ $161 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 84¢ $43 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 67¢ $50 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 57¢ $20 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $65.67 · official $75.16 · 399 history records