Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T19:46:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9B 0x9b90…5fb9 sports 109 markets active 2h ago coverage 53d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$6,763 (+6%) realized +$5,387 · open +$1,376
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate47%50W / 56L
Whale WR41%big bets
Drawdown81%max
Avg bet$1,049per market
Trades / day35.5pace
Fees−$1,638est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$5,098now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$659
7 days−$15,689
14 days−$15,751
30 days+$2,024
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% +$8,434
other 7% −$1,755
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-2.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -18.8% -26.6% 28% 28% -54.7%
≤30d 66 +13.2% +2.4% 47% 47% -7.3%
≤90d 106 +7.5% -2.8% 47% 47% -5.2%
all 106 +7.5% -2.8% 47% 47% -5.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover35.5 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -2.8% 47% -5.2%
10% -12.1% 47% -14.2%
15% ← realistic here -20.6% 47% -22.5%
20% -28.3% 46% -30.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 41% (≥$1,302) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +13% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
17.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,159 vs −$940 · ×1.23 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

53d coverage
Net worth$5,098
Realized+$5,387
Unrealized+$1,376
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses50 / 56
Whale WR (big bets)41%
Est. fees paid−$1,638
Open positions3
Markets (closed)106 / 109
History coverage53d
Avg bet$1,049
Trades / day35.5
Drawdown81%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 106 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Over 51¢ 70¢ $2,079 $2,874 +$795 (+38%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 60¢ 90¢ $990 $1,477 +$487 (+49%)
Dublin: Titouan Droguet vs Jurij Rodionov Titouan Droguet 52¢ 60¢ $653 $748 +$94 (+14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 53 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 19 $876 −$864 -99%
Dublin: Kyrian Jacquet vs Henry Searle Jun 19 $1,269 −$1,251 -99%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $396 −$396 -100%
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 18 $401 +$1,181 +294%
Halle Open: Raphael Collignon vs Mattia Bellucci Jun 18 $1,406 +$1,259 +90%
Grass Court Championships: Alexandra Eala vs Elena Rybakina Jun 18 $1,607 −$1,584 -99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1,204 +$996 +83%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1,330 −$1,312 -99%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 17 $1,306 −$23 -2%
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Martin Damm Jun 16 $1,899 −$1,897 -100%
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron Jun 16 $1,505 −$1,485 -99%
HSBC Championships: Arthur Rinderknech vs Hamad Medjedovic Jun 16 $1,396 −$1,396 -100%
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Jun 15 $792 −$792 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $990 −$990 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3,403 −$3,366 -99%
Nottingham 2: Henrique Rocha vs Christopher O'Connell Jun 15 $611 +$1,070 +175%
HSBC Championships: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Denis Shapovalov Jun 15 $897 −$891 -99%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $904 −$891 -99%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $607 +$1,515 +250%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $3,722 −$3,722 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $594 −$594 -100%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $607 +$1,515 +250%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 14 $1,509 −$1,485 -98%
HSBC Championships: Donna Vekic vs Emma Raducanu Jun 14 $1,257 −$1,257 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $1,085 +$972 +90%
Ilkley: Filippo Romano vs Jack Pinnington Jones Jun 12 $1,401 −$1,383 -99%
HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Emma Raducanu Jun 12 $740 +$770 +104%
Ilkley: Dane Sweeny vs Billy Harris Jun 12 $1,009 −$992 -98%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 11 $362 −$356 -98%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 11 $1,007 −$990 -98%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 10 $1,545 −$1,545 -100%
Ilkley: Henrique Rocha vs Charles Broom Jun 10 $2,296 −$2,277 -99%
HSBC Championships: Victoria Mboko vs Karolina Pliskova Jun 10 $605 −$594 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 10 $792 +$968 +122%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 10 $5,224 +$4,870 +93%
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic Jun 09 $1,980 −$1,980 -100%
Libema Open: Marin Cilic vs Denis Shapovalov Jun 08 $1,505 +$1,245 +83%
Flavio Cobolli vs. Alexander Zverev: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Jun 07 $1,677 +$1,214 +72%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins Jun 06 $1,208 +$988 +82%
Set 1 Winner: Berrettini vs Arnaldi Jun 03 $228 +$302 +133%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 03 $1,549 +$1,993 +129%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 03 $1,078 +$995 +92%
Birmingham: James Watt vs Harry Wendelken Jun 02 $2,682 +$1,849 +69%
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 02 $1,458 +$3,489 +239%
Birmingham: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Aleksandar Vukic Jun 01 $1,158 −$1,142 -99%
Birmingham: Yunchaokete Bu vs Lloyd Harris Jun 01 $1,926 −$1,904 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca May 31 $970 −$952 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Pablo Carreno Busta May 31 $2,089 +$3,142 +150%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Raphael Collignon May 30 $389 +$971 +250%
Roland Garros ATP: Moise Kouame vs Alejandro Tabilo May 30 $2,941 +$2,941 +100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $2,110 2h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $990 2h
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Daniil Medvedev BUY Daniil Medvedev 51¢ $402 3h
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Daniil Medvedev BUY Daniil Medvedev 53¢ $474 3h
Dublin: Kyrian Jacquet vs Henry Searle BUY Kyrian Jacquet 52¢ $10 5h
Dublin: Kyrian Jacquet vs Henry Searle BUY Kyrian Jacquet 53¢ $1,205 5h
Dublin: Kyrian Jacquet vs Henry Searle BUY Kyrian Jacquet 52¢ $35 5h
Dublin: Kyrian Jacquet vs Henry Searle BUY Kyrian Jacquet 52¢ $19 5h
Dublin: Titouan Droguet vs Jurij Rodionov BUY Titouan Droguet 52¢ $1 5h
Dublin: Titouan Droguet vs Jurij Rodionov BUY Titouan Droguet 52¢ $1 5h
Dublin: Titouan Droguet vs Jurij Rodionov BUY Titouan Droguet 52¢ $1 5h
Dublin: Titouan Droguet vs Jurij Rodionov BUY Titouan Droguet 52¢ $1 5h
Dublin: Titouan Droguet vs Jurij Rodionov BUY Titouan Droguet 52¢ $1 5h
Dublin: Titouan Droguet vs Jurij Rodionov BUY Titouan Droguet 52¢ $1 5h
Dublin: Titouan Droguet vs Jurij Rodionov BUY Titouan Droguet 52¢ $1 5h
Dublin: Titouan Droguet vs Jurij Rodionov BUY Titouan Droguet 52¢ $1 5h
Dublin: Titouan Droguet vs Jurij Rodionov BUY Titouan Droguet 52¢ $1 5h
Dublin: Titouan Droguet vs Jurij Rodionov BUY Titouan Droguet 52¢ $1 5h
Dublin: Titouan Droguet vs Jurij Rodionov BUY Titouan Droguet 52¢ $1 5h
Dublin: Titouan Droguet vs Jurij Rodionov BUY Titouan Droguet 52¢ $1 5h
Dublin: Titouan Droguet vs Jurij Rodionov BUY Titouan Droguet 52¢ $1 5h
Dublin: Titouan Droguet vs Jurij Rodionov BUY Titouan Droguet 52¢ $1 5h
Dublin: Titouan Droguet vs Jurij Rodionov BUY Titouan Droguet 52¢ $1 5h
Dublin: Titouan Droguet vs Jurij Rodionov BUY Titouan Droguet 52¢ $1 5h
Dublin: Titouan Droguet vs Jurij Rodionov BUY Titouan Droguet 52¢ $1 5h
Dublin: Titouan Droguet vs Jurij Rodionov BUY Titouan Droguet 52¢ $1 5h
Dublin: Titouan Droguet vs Jurij Rodionov BUY Titouan Droguet 52¢ $1 5h
Dublin: Titouan Droguet vs Jurij Rodionov BUY Titouan Droguet 52¢ $1 5h
Dublin: Titouan Droguet vs Jurij Rodionov BUY Titouan Droguet 52¢ $1 5h
Dublin: Titouan Droguet vs Jurij Rodionov BUY Titouan Droguet 52¢ $1 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,098.29 · official $4,322.79 · 1933 history records