Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:49:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
9B 0x9b8f…1090 other 158 markets active 1h ago coverage 154d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$1,351 (+1%) realized +$1,351 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate16%26W / 132L
Whale WR2%big bets
Drawdown54%max
Avg bet$1,128per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$11
14 days−$28
30 days+$57
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% −$190
politics 38% −$88
sports 7% +$1,578
economics 3% −$6
world 2% +$44
culture 2% −$4
crypto 0% +$1
tech 0% +$5
finance 0% −$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.1% -9.5% 14% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 36 +5.2% -4.8% 17% 8% -9.4%
≤90d 115 -9.9% -18.5% 8% 3% -9.1%
all 158 +1.0% -8.6% 16% 10% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.6% 10% -8.9%
10% -17.4% 10% -17.6%
15% -25.4% 10% -25.5%
20% -32.7% 9% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 63% · top 2 68% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 2% (≥$1,503) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$89 vs −$8 · ×11.79 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.34 per $1 lost it wins $2.34
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

154d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,351
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses26 / 132
Whale WR (big bets)2%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)158 / 158
History coverage154d
Avg bet$1,128
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown54%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 158 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $4,097 −$6 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $907 −$1 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 15 $928 −$2 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $1,067 −$2 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $1,201 −$2 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? Jun 12 $357 +$5 +1%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 10 $2,292 −$4 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 09 $1,923 −$2 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 09 $2,256 −$3 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $2,365 −$4 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $2,460 −$3 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 08 $1,064 −$2 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $3,578 −$6 -0%
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 06 $52 +$75 +146%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $1,176 −$2 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $1,007 −$1 -0%
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 03 $70 −$70 -100%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $1,895 −$2 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $1,773 −$3 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? Jun 02 $145 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in May? Jun 02 $424 $0 +0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $1,513 −$2 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 01 $692 −$1 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 31 $719 −$1 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 29 $510 −$1 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $622 −$1 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $568 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $1,385 −$2 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 25 $708 −$1 -0%
Detroit Tigers vs. Baltimore Orioles May 25 $84 +$85 +101%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 22 $749 −$1 -0%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 22 $53 +$23 +44%
Will Kemi Badenoch be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in May 22 $1,055 −$1 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $2,073 −$3 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 21 $1,097 −$2 -0%
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec May 20 $1,033 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 10 $1,029 −$2 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 10 $1,200 −$2 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 10 $1,003 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 09 $1,170 −$2 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $4,348 −$5 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $3,669 −$4 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $2,372 −$3 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $2,950 −$3 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $1,237 −$2 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 06 $2,264 −$3 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? May 06 $936 −$1 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $1,231 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $1,555 −$2 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 04 $1,235 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,204 1h
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,206 2h
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 100¢ $905 42h
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $907 44h
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $927 44h
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $928 46h
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,065 46h
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,067 2d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $981 2d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $982 2d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,199 3d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,201 3d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? BUY No 99¢ $357 4d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,194 6d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,196 7d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $791 7d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $792 7d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,064 7d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,066 8d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,096 8d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $1,098 8d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,209 8d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,211 8d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,062 9d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,064 9d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,095 9d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,097 10d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,196 10d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,198 10d
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY San Francisco Giants 40¢ $52 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 493 history records