Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T05:38:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9B 0x9b8e…6ff1 crypto 133 markets active 1h ago coverage 58d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$225 (-26%) realized −$143 · open −$82
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -31% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate27%30W / 82L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day4.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$95now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$5
14 days−$53
30 days−$131
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 62% −$130
world 11% +$18
other 9% −$42
politics 8% −$37
finance 6% −$38
sports 3% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-37.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -37.9% -43.8% 40% 20% -24.9%
≤30d 85 -34.6% -40.8% 25% 21% -31.1%
≤90d 112 -30.9% -37.5% 27% 24% -30.7%
all 112 -30.9% -37.5% 27% 24% -30.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -37.5% 24% -30.7%
10% -43.5% 22% -37.3%
15% -48.9% 18% -43.4%
20% -53.9% 14% -48.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -31% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -32% → late -30% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$4 · ×1.41 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

58d coverage
Net worth$95
Realized−$143
Unrealized−$82
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses30 / 82
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions21
Markets (closed)112 / 133
History coverage58d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 21 History 112 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 58¢ 81¢ $10 $14 +$4 (+40%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Yes 8¢ 4¢ $19 $10 −$9 (-49%)
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 50¢ 44¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-13%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $9 $8 −$1 (-6%)
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30? Yes 17¢ 10¢ $15 $8 −$7 (-45%)
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House Yes 48¢ 42¢ $9 $8 −$1 (-11%)
Will inflation reach more than 10% in 2026? Yes 7¢ 4¢ $13 $7 −$6 (-45%)
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by June 30? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $23 $6 −$17 (-72%)
Will inflation reach more than 8% in 2026? Yes 7¢ 5¢ $6 $4 −$2 (-38%)
Will Trump say "Transgender" during G7 events? Yes 30¢ 18¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-41%)
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? Yes 5¢ 3¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-42%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Yes 17¢ 4¢ $10 $3 −$7 (-74%)
Will inflation reach more than 6% in 2026? Yes 12¢ 6¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-54%)
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 42¢ 32¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-25%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Pope Leo XIV by June 30, 2026? Yes 16¢ 5¢ $6 $2 −$4 (-68%)
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 28¢ 24¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-12%)
Will Trump say "Six Seven" during G7 events? Yes 20¢ 12¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-41%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Yes 17¢ 1¢ $16 $1 −$15 (-93%)
Kash Patel out by June 30? Yes 37¢ 8¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-80%)
Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026? Yes 14¢ 7¢ $1 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by June 30? Yes 32¢ 5¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-83%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 55 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 10 $10 −$2 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 10 $6 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 10 $9 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 06 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 06 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 06 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 05 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 02 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 02 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 02 $8 −$1 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 02 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 02 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 02 $15 −$7 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 02 $3 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 02 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 02 $6 −$6 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 02 $5 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 02 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 02 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 02 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 02 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 01 $14 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 01 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 01 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 01 $11 −$5 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 01 $6 +$26 +406%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 01 $6 +$7 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 01 $11 −$6 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 01 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 01 $3 +$12 +374%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 01 $8 −$3 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 01 $10 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 01 $6 +$2 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 01 $8 −$5 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 01 $8 −$2 -19%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 01 $5 +$12 +245%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 01 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 01 $13 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 01 $10 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 01 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 01 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 01 $9 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 01 $4 −$3 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 01 $8 +$2 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 01 $10 −$7 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 01 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 01 $9 +$4 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 01 $6 −$2 -39%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump say "Transgender" during G7 events? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 1h
Will Trump say "Six Seven" during G7 events? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 1h
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $3 5d
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $5 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $5 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $3 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $3 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $3 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $5 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $3 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $2 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $5 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $5 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $5 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $5 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $3 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $3 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $5 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $95.21 · official $95.21 (match) · 324 history records