Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:21:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9B 0x9b8d…9805 other 140 markets active 1h ago coverage 142d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$2,176 (+1%) realized +$2,177 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate19%27W / 112L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown85%max
Avg bet$1,479per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$23est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$1,288now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$17
7 days−$28
14 days−$65
30 days−$98
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% +$2,097
politics 35% −$89
sports 9% +$144
economics 3% −$6
tech 2% +$1
culture 2% −$4
world 1% −$2
crypto 1% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-14.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +0.0% -9.5% 9% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 40 -0.6% -10.1% 12% 5% -9.6%
≤90d 100 -12.4% -20.7% 12% 6% -8.5%
all 139 -5.7% -14.6% 19% 9% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.6% 9% -8.6%
10% -22.8% 9% -17.3%
15% -30.3% 8% -25.3%
20% -37.1% 7% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 89% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
56% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,726) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -13% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$165 vs −$21 · ×7.94 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.93 per $1 lost it wins $1.93
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

142d coverage
Net worth$1,288
Realized+$2,177
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses27 / 112
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions1
Markets (closed)139 / 140
History coverage142d
Avg bet$1,479
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown85%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 139 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $1,289 $1,288 −$1 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $2,987 −$4 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $1,271 −$1 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 16 $1,284 −$2 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $8,202 −$10 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 15 $1,385 −$2 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $906 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $7,585 −$8 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $1,326 −$2 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.8T? Jun 12 $392 +$6 +2%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $978 −$1 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $1,469 −$2 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $3,864 −$5 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $4,673 −$5 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $2,294 −$2 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $1,290 −$2 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 08 $2,543 −$3 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 07 $554 −$1 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $1,086 −$1 -0%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $53 −$53 -100%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 06 $81 +$35 +44%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $1,336 −$2 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $4,050 −$5 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $2,058 −$3 -0%
Will Solana dip to $50 in May? Jun 02 $348 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $1.80 in May? Jun 02 $607 +$2 +0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $576 −$1 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $2,271 −$3 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 29 $601 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 27 $546 −$1 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $540 −$1 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $3,288 −$2 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $964 −$1 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 25 $758 −$1 -0%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Toronto Blue Jays May 25 $59 +$79 +134%
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche: O/U 5.5 May 24 $75 −$75 -100%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 21 $1,343 −$2 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 21 $2,494 −$3 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $6,200 −$7 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $2,602 −$3 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 20 $1,516 −$2 -0%
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026? May 10 $1,666 −$3 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 10 $4,744 −$6 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 09 $7,260 −$8 -0%
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2026? May 08 $1,596 −$3 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju May 07 $4,483 −$5 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $1,304 −$2 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $7,391 −$8 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 05 $1,303 −$2 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 04 $1,516 −$2 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? May 04 $2,771 −$3 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,289 1h
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,287 5h
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,289 7h
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,269 23h
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,271 25h
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,282 26h
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,284 31h
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,416 45h
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,418 2d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,383 2d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,385 2d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $904 2d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $906 3d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,200 3d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,202 3d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,324 4d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,326 4d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $977 4d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $978 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.8T? BUY No 98¢ $382 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.8T? BUY No 98¢ $10 5d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,467 6d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,469 7d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,372 7d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,374 7d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,136 8d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,137 8d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,228 8d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,229 8d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,288 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,288.40 · official $1,288.40 (match) · 541 history records