Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T02:37:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
9B 0x9b88…e454 crypto 48 markets active 1h ago coverage 112d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover
Total PnL −$16 (-0%) realized +$45 · open −$61
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate53%24W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$79per market
Trades / day14.5pace
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$268now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$30
30 days+$47
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 54% −$93
crypto 28% +$36
other 16% +$36
tech 2% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +26.4% +14.4% 100% 50% +7.4%
≤90d 19 -5.4% -14.4% 42% 32% -1.4%
all 45 -5.2% -14.2% 53% 38% -8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.2% 38% -8.1%
10% -22.4% 20% -16.9%
15% -29.9% 16% -24.9%
20% -36.8% 13% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
30.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$19 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

112d coverage
Net worth$268
Realized+$45
Unrealized−$61
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses24 / 21
Open positions3
Markets (closed)45 / 48
History coverage112d
Avg bet$79
Trades / day14.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 45 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iran leadership change by June 30? No 82¢ 99¢ $164 $198 +$34 (+21%)
Iran leadership change by December 31? Yes 39¢ 16¢ $157 $66 −$91 (-58%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 24? No $9 $4 −$4 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $70 +$30 +44%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 27 $182 +$17 +9%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? May 08 $10 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by April 30? May 02 $180 +$20 +11%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Apr 30 $65 +$9 +14%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 28? Apr 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 28? Apr 28 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on April 5? Apr 05 $35 −$4 -12%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 5? Apr 05 $50 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on April 3? Apr 03 $50 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 2? Apr 02 $50 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on April 1? Apr 01 $35 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 1? Apr 01 $50 +$50 +100%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in March? Mar 29 $91 +$4 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 28? Mar 28 $59 −$45 -76%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 27? Mar 27 $50 +$6 +12%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 27? Mar 26 $50 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 26? Mar 26 $11 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 26? Mar 26 $50 +$50 +100%
Will Backpack launch a token on March 23? Mar 24 $437 +$6 +1%
Will Backpack launch a token by March 31? Mar 23 $99 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 14? Mar 14 $27 −$27 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 12? Mar 12 $52 +$47 +91%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 12? Mar 12 $19 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 12? Mar 12 $14 −$14 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 10? Mar 10 $28 −$6 -19%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 9? Mar 09 $22 +$7 +32%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 9? Mar 09 $18 −$17 -96%
Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 8, 2026? Mar 08 $92 +$4 +4%
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 8? Mar 08 $186 +$30 +16%
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 9? Mar 08 $184 −$43 -23%
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 7? Mar 08 $75 +$25 +33%
Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 7, 2026? Mar 08 $89 +$11 +12%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 7? Mar 07 $56 +$10 +17%
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 10? Mar 07 $140 −$140 -100%
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 6? Mar 07 $84 +$16 +19%
Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 6, 2026? Mar 07 $85 +$15 +18%
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 5? Mar 06 $210 +$9 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 6? Mar 06 $50 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 6? Mar 05 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 5? Mar 05 $10 +$1 +12%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 5? Mar 05 $30 +$30 +100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 4? Mar 04 $26 −$22 -86%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 4? Mar 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 4? Mar 04 $30 +$20 +68%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 24? SELL No $5 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 24? SELL No $3 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 24? SELL No $4 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 24? SELL No $27 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 24? BUY No $17 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 24? BUY No $2 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 24? BUY No $2 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 24? BUY No $2 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 24? BUY No $2 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 24? BUY No $2 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 24? BUY No $2 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 24? BUY No $2 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 24? BUY No $2 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 24? BUY No $0 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 24? BUY No $0 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 24? BUY No $0 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 24? BUY No $0 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 24? BUY No $0 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 24? BUY No $0 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 24? BUY No $0 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 24? BUY No $0 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 24? BUY No $0 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 24? BUY No $0 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 24? BUY No $0 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 24? BUY No $0 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 24? BUY No $3 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 24? BUY No $7 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 24? BUY No $0 4h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 24? BUY No $0 4h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 24? BUY No $0 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $268.43 · official $268.43 (match) · 1635 history records