Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T17:54:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
9B 0x9b87…8a0d sports 42 markets active 1d ago coverage 9d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL +$604 (+3%) realized +$604 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%16W / 26L
Whale WR55%big bets
Drawdown93%max
Avg bet$496per market
Trades / day18.8pace
Fees−$447est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$13
7 days+$485
14 days+$372
30 days+$372
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% −$729
other 5% +$1,101
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 +33.6% +20.9% 39% 39% -7.4%
≤30d 42 +24.8% +12.9% 38% 38% -7.9%
≤90d 42 +24.8% +12.9% 38% 38% -7.9%
all 42 +24.8% +12.9% 38% 38% -7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +12.9% 38% -7.9%
10% +2.1% 38% -16.7%
15% -7.8% 38% -24.8%
20% -16.8% 38% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +25% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 55% (≥$797) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +75% → late -26% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$698 vs −$415 · ×1.68 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$604
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses16 / 26
Whale WR (big bets)55%
Est. fees paid−$447
Open positions0
Markets (closed)42 / 42
History coverage9d
Avg bet$496
Trades / day18.8
Drawdown93%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 42 Trades
no open positions (20 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 15 $13 −$13 -98%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Daniel Evans vs Marcos Giron Jun 13 $479 −$469 -98%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Johannus Monday vs Giovanni Mpetshi Jun 13 $1,157 −$1,135 -98%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Harry Wendelken vs Adam Walton Jun 13 $382 +$495 +130%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Panna Udvardy vs Katie Volynets Jun 13 $503 −$503 -100%
Libema Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Alex de Minaur Jun 13 $1,010 −$990 -98%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 13 $605 −$504 -83%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 13 $489 −$480 -98%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 13 $254 −$247 -98%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 13 $134 −$134 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1,031 +$1,101 +107%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Katie Boulter Jun 12 $1,180 +$1,827 +155%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 12 $1,249 −$1,226 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Jiri Lehecka vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 12 $406 −$396 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 12 $2 $0 -4%
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Amanda Anisimova Jun 12 $1,003 −$928 -93%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz Jun 12 $1,177 −$1,153 -98%
Libema Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 12 $797 +$752 +94%
Libema Open: Daria Snigur vs Robin Montgomery Jun 12 $632 −$621 -98%
HSBC Championships: Harriet Dart vs Kamilla Rakhimova Jun 12 $408 +$1,237 +303%
Set Handicap: Dart (-1.5) vs Rakhimova (+1.5) Jun 12 $466 +$274 +59%
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic Jun 12 $1,157 +$922 +80%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $700 −$655 -94%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron Jun 12 $877 +$675 +77%
Libema Open: Caty McNally vs Solana Sierra Jun 12 $16 −$9 -58%
Tucuman: Nicolas Kicker vs Nick Hardt Jun 12 $136 −$133 -97%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $599 −$367 -61%
Modena: Lucia Bronzetti vs Julia Grabher Jun 11 $531 +$782 +147%
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Thijs Boogaard Jun 11 $289 −$35 -12%
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz Jun 11 $994 +$897 +90%
Stuttgart Open: Sho Shimabukuro vs Nick Kyrgios Jun 11 $372 +$1,133 +304%
Libema Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 11 $99 −$99 -100%
Libema Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Rinderknech Jun 11 $291 +$175 +60%
Stuttgart Open: Rinky Hijikata vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 11 $267 −$267 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Jiri Lehecka vs James Duckworth Jun 11 $291 −$285 -98%
Libema Open: Ugo Humbert vs Benjamin Bonzi Jun 11 $306 +$264 +86%
Libema Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Elise Mertens Jun 11 $316 +$288 +91%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $20 +$308 +1504%
Tyler: Adam Walton vs Andre Ilagan Jun 07 $23 −$22 -98%
Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 06 $94 −$92 -98%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 06 $58 +$37 +63%
Libema Open, Qualification: Benjamin Bonzi vs Marc Polmans Jun 06 $36 −$35 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe BUY Flavio Cobolli 19¢ $13 25h
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Daniel Evans vs Marcos Giron BUY Daniel Evans 29¢ $479 3d
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Johannus Monday vs Giovanni Mpetshi BUY Johannus Monday 32¢ $377 3d
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Johannus Monday vs Giovanni Mpetshi BUY Johannus Monday 31¢ $10 3d
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Harry Wendelken vs Adam Walton SELL Harry Wendelken 84¢ $109 3d
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Harry Wendelken vs Adam Walton SELL Harry Wendelken 77¢ $769 3d
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Johannus Monday vs Giovanni Mpetshi BUY Johannus Monday 34¢ $768 3d
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Johannus Monday vs Giovanni Mpetshi BUY Johannus Monday 36¢ $3 3d
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Harry Wendelken vs Adam Walton BUY Harry Wendelken 33¢ $382 3d
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Panna Udvardy vs Katie Volynets BUY Panna Udvardy 10¢ $158 3d
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Panna Udvardy vs Katie Volynets BUY Panna Udvardy 11¢ $20 3d
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Panna Udvardy vs Katie Volynets BUY Panna Udvardy 10¢ $10 3d
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Panna Udvardy vs Katie Volynets BUY Panna Udvardy 10¢ $305 3d
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Panna Udvardy vs Katie Volynets BUY Panna Udvardy 10¢ $10 3d
Libema Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Alex de Minaur BUY Adrian Mannarino 33¢ $1,010 3d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels SELL Tampa Bay Rays 7¢ $101 3d
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Colorado Rockies 31¢ $489 3d
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 14¢ $254 3d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Tampa Bay Rays 40¢ $605 3d
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY Paraguay 14¢ $3 3d
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY Paraguay 14¢ $126 3d
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY Paraguay 14¢ $5 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 98¢ $2,132 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $392 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $639 3d
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Katie Boulter SELL Katie Boulter 100¢ $3,007 3d
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Katie Boulter BUY Katie Boulter 35¢ $7 3d
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Katie Boulter BUY Katie Boulter 40¢ $13 3d
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Katie Boulter BUY Katie Boulter 40¢ $9 3d
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Katie Boulter BUY Katie Boulter 40¢ $3 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 171 history records