Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T15:36:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
9B 0x9b87…d7aa sports 17 markets active 3d ago coverage 96d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$3,300 (+20%) realized +$2,338 · open +$962
Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%6W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$959per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$93est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$3,813now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$30
14 days−$30
30 days+$3,641
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 54% +$573
other 35% +$962
crypto 11% −$83
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-36.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 3 +28.6% +16.3% 67% 67% +73.1%
≤90d 9 -39.7% -45.5% 33% 33% +8.3%
all 16 -30.2% -36.9% 38% 38% -5.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -36.9% 38% -5.1%
10% -42.9% 38% -14.2%
15% -48.4% 38% -22.5%
20% -53.5% 38% -30.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 74% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +20% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -30% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -28% → late -33% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$821 vs −$444 · ×1.85 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

96d coverage
Net worth$3,813
Realized+$2,338
Unrealized+$962
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses6 / 10
Est. fees paid−$93
Open positions1
Markets (closed)16 / 17
History coverage96d
Avg bet$959
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2,851 $3,813 +$962 (+34%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $30 −$30 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $1,974 +$2,393 +121%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $1,981 +$1,278 +64%
Valorant: Fnatic vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT EMEA Group Omega Apr 09 $888 −$395 -44%
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - VCT EMEA Group Alpha Apr 04 $1,583 −$1,583 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Apr 03 $1,030 +$554 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Mar 22 $520 −$520 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Mar 22 $88 −$87 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Mar 22 $100 −$97 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Mar 16 $100 +$66 +66%
Valorant: Nongshim RedForce vs Paper Rex - Map 1 Winner Mar 15 $245 +$209 +85%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs G2 Esports - Map 2 Winner Mar 13 $279 −$279 -100%
Valorant: Nongshim RedForce vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters Santiago Playof Mar 13 $659 −$659 -100%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs All Gamers (BO3) - VCT Masters Santiago Playoff Mar 10 $389 −$389 -100%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs All Gamers - Map 2 Winner Mar 10 $400 −$400 -100%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters Santiago Playoffs Mar 09 $350 +$428 +122%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $50 2d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $60 2d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $20 2d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $100 2d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 2d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $8 2d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $20 2d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $50 2d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $442 2d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $3 2d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $21 2d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $48 2d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 2d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $3 2d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $15 2d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $30 2d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $2 2d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $4 2d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $100 2d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $257 2d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $2 2d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $8 2d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 2d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $5 2d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $7 2d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $13 2d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $50 2d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $13 2d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 2d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $12 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,813.45 · official $3,831.27 (match) · 116 history records