Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T15:07:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
9B 0x9b83…b33e crypto 174 markets active 1h ago coverage 80d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$4 (+2%) realized +$5 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate56%94W / 73L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$12
7 days+$4
14 days+$5
30 days+$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 82% −$2
sports 13% −$2
other 5% +$4
world 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 146 +0.3% -9.2% 55% 54% -7.0%
≤30d 164 +1.8% -7.9% 57% 54% -4.3%
≤90d 167 +1.1% -8.5% 56% 54% -8.6%
all 167 +1.1% -8.5% 56% 54% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.5% 54% -8.6%
10% -17.3% 48% -17.4%
15% -25.3% 44% -25.4%
20% -32.6% 38% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

80d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized+$5
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses94 / 73
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions7
Markets (closed)167 / 174
History coverage80d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 167 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Jude Bellingham score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Under 57¢ 56¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals St. Louis Cardinals 52¢ 52¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Iraq 41¢ 40¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs XLG Gaming 32¢ 16¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-52%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 71 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +134%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +73%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +79%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1 +$1 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +173%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1 +$2 +172%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 +$3 +307%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $2 +$1 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +79%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 16 $1 +$1 +60%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +134%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +76%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $1 +$2 +180%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $1 $0 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +90%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $1 +$1 +101%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $1 +$1 +76%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +105%
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +25%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +101%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +25%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY St. Louis Cardinals 52¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $1 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $1 6h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl BUY XLG Gaming 32¢ $1 7h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Iraq 41¢ $1 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 8h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $1 9h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $1 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 13h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 48¢ $1 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $1 14h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 36¢ $1 17h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 24¢ $1 17h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 17h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 62¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $1 19h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 19h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $1 20h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 35¢ $1 20h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Cabo Verde 67¢ $1 30h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 BUY Under 35¢ $1 30h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.45 · official $6.45 (match) · 274 history records