Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T06:41:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
9B 0x9b82…b1c8 crypto 103 markets active 0h ago coverage 115d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$8 (+0%) realized +$9 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate67%68W / 34L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$45
7 days−$51
14 days−$51
30 days−$51
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 93% −$55
politics 5% −$15
other 2% +$5
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-6.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 96 +3.8% -6.0% 70% 62% -11.3%
≤30d 96 +3.8% -6.0% 70% 62% -11.3%
≤90d 97 +3.8% -6.1% 69% 62% -11.3%
all 102 +3.1% -6.8% 67% 60% -11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.8% 60% -11.7%
10% -15.7% 43% -20.2%
15% -23.8% 26% -27.9%
20% -31.3% 13% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$16 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

115d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized+$9
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses68 / 34
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)102 / 103
History coverage115d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 102 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Down 62¢ 56¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 25 $11 −$10 -93%
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 25 $11 +$4 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 25 $9 +$3 +38%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 25 $9 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 25 $7 +$3 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 25 $4 +$2 +42%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 25 $16 −$16 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 25 $13 +$2 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 25 $46 −$45 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 25 $39 +$15 +38%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 25 $33 +$4 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 25 $157 −$157 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 25 $142 +$49 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 25 $92 +$27 +29%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 25 $93 +$20 +21%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 25 $66 +$32 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 25 $49 +$19 +40%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 25 $41 +$6 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 25 $34 +$7 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 25 $29 +$10 +34%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 25 $14 +$14 +97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 25 $14 +$1 +9%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 25 $10 +$2 +23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 25 $9 +$2 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 25 $7 +$2 +24%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $6 +$3 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 24 $11 −$10 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 24 $11 +$2 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 24 $6 +$6 +103%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 24 $1 $0 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 24 $3 −$3 -88%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 24 $3 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 24 $40 −$40 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 24 $35 +$9 +26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 24 $87 −$87 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 24 $65 +$7 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 24 $86 +$14 +17%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 24 $61 +$9 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 24 $60 +$7 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 24 $51 +$31 +60%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 24 $35 +$6 +18%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 24 $32 +$5 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 24 $26 +$12 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 24 $18 +$8 +47%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 24 $15 +$4 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 24 $31 −$30 -97%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 24 $30 +$8 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 24 $22 +$3 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $7 0m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET SELL Down 5¢ $0 1m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $11 4m
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $3 6m
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $3 7m
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $5 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $9 14m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $1 46m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $9 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $9 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $14 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $46 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $39 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $33 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $101 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $57 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $30 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $112 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $92 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $12 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $81 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $15 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.42 · official $7.23 (match) · 292 history records