Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T21:05:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

9B 0x9b81…fa01 sports 33 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d

UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover

✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover

Total PnL −$159 (-40%) realized −$169 · open +$10

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip

Net edge-32%after slip

Net WR39%break-even

Win rate42%13W / 18L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$12per market

Trades / day44.8pace

Fees−$6est.

Kalshi-fit85%portable

Net worth$18now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +39%

net ROI/market (all)-20.3%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	31	-11.9%	-20.3%	42%	39%	-61.0%
≤30d	31	-11.9%	-20.3%	42%	39%	-61.0%
≤90d	31	-11.9%	-20.3%	42%	39%	-61.0%
all	31	-11.9%	-20.3%	42%	39%	-61.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover44.8 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-20.3%	39%	-61.0%
10% ← realistic here	-27.9%	39%	-64.7%
15%	-34.9%	35%	-68.1%
20%	-41.3%	26%	-71.2%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 17% · top 2 31% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -57% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

8% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -12% · $-wt -57% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -32% → late +7% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$5 vs −$15 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.24 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$18

Realized−$169

Unrealized+$10

Win rate (resolved)42%

Wins / losses13 / 18

Est. fees paid−$6

Open positions2

Markets (closed)31 / 33

History coverage1d

Avg bet$12

Trades / day44.8

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 31 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners	Over	52¢	100¢	$6	$12	+$6 (+92%)
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5	Over	30¢	100¢	$2	$7	+$5 (+233%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals	Jun 16	$2	+$9	+437%
Spread: France (-1.5)	Jun 16	$8	+$11	+135%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw?	Jun 16	$10	+$4	+44%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw?	Jun 16	$3	+$1	+27%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 7.5 Total Corners	Jun 16	$11	−$11	-99%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 9.5 Total Corners	Jun 16	$10	−$10	-98%
Spread: IR Iran (-2.5)	Jun 16	$5	−$5	-97%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 16	$10	−$10	-99%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 8.5 Total Corners	Jun 16	$36	−$35	-98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET	Jun 16	$5	−$5	-95%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 16?	Jun 16	$1	−$1	-96%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners	Jun 16	$10	+$7	+72%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5)	Jun 16	$5	−$5	-98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$33	−$33	-99%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw?	Jun 15	$5	+$4	+86%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$3	+$6	+211%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 0.5	Jun 15	$3	−$3	-98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET	Jun 15	$5	−$5	-95%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw?	Jun 15	$37	−$1	-4%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 8.5 Total Corners	Jun 15	$10	+$5	+47%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5)	Jun 15	$1	−$1	-97%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$3	+$5	+173%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5	Jun 15	$14	$0	+3%
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners	Jun 15	$10	−$10	-98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET	Jun 15	$11	−$11	-100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 1.5	Jun 15	$5	−$5	-100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 9.5 Total Corners	Jun 15	$10	+$4	+44%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$111	−$110	-99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5	Jun 15	$5	+$3	+66%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	Jun 15	$2	+$2	+84%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 0.5	Jun 15	$2	−$2	-97%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals	SELL Yes	99¢	$11	3m
Spread: France (-1.5)	SELL France	89¢	$19	5m
Spread: France (-1.5)	BUY France	33¢	$3	22m
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5	BUY Over	30¢	$2	55m
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw?	SELL Yes	33¢	$15	1h
Spread: France (-1.5)	BUY France	40¢	$5	2h
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals	BUY Yes	18¢	$2	2h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners	BUY Over	52¢	$6	2h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw?	BUY Yes	22¢	$10	2h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw?	SELL Yes	37¢	$4	18h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 7.5 Total Corners	BUY Over	63¢	$11	20h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 9.5 Total Corners	BUY Over	36¢	$5	20h
Spread: IR Iran (-2.5)	BUY IR Iran	11¢	$3	20h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	52¢	$10	20h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 8.5 Total Corners	BUY Over	47¢	$36	20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET	BUY Down	31¢	$5	20h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 16?	BUY Yes	7¢	$1	20h
Spread: IR Iran (-2.5)	BUY IR Iran	11¢	$2	20h
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5)	BUY IR Iran	27¢	$5	20h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 9.5 Total Corners	BUY Over	34¢	$5	20h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	19¢	$3	21h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw?	SELL Yes	69¢	$9	21h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw?	BUY Yes	36¢	$5	21h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15?	SELL Yes	39¢	$10	21h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 0.5	BUY Under	16¢	$3	22h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners	BUY Over	57¢	$10	22h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	64¢	$30	23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET	BUY Down	28¢	$5	23h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw?	BUY Yes	28¢	$3	23h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	12¢	$3	23h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $18.20 · official $18.20 (match) · 59 history records