Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T21:09:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9B 0x9b7c…a1c9 sports 13 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
Total PnL −$43 (-37%) realized +$4 · open −$47
Gross ROI / mkt +52% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +32% what you keep after slip
Net edge+32%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate40%4W / 6L
Drawdown73%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day5.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$12now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$4
14 days+$4
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 48% −$47
other 36% −$11
sports 13% +$15
crypto 4% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)+37.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +52.2% +37.7% 40% 30% -3.4%
≤30d 10 +52.2% +37.7% 40% 30% -3.4%
≤90d 10 +52.2% +37.7% 40% 30% -3.4%
all 10 +52.2% +37.7% 40% 30% -3.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +37.7% 30% -3.4%
10% +24.5% 30% -12.7%
15% +12.5% 30% -21.1%
20% +1.4% 30% -28.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 86% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +52% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$3 · ×1.79 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.2 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$12
Realized+$4
Unrealized−$47
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses4 / 6
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)10 / 13
History coverage6d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day5.1
Drawdown73%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes $53 $6 −$47 (-89%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Yes 49¢ 40¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-17%)
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 36¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+30%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $21 $0 +1%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 $0 -2%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $4 −$3 -85%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -97%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 +$3 +59%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 −$1 -60%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 +$12 +244%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $8 −$7 -87%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 +$7 +649%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 49¢ $4 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $21 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 99¢ $21 3h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes $1 3h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes $1 3h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes $2 15h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? SELL Yes $1 15h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes $0 15h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $1 16h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $3 16h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $6 17h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $8 17h
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 18h
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 20h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 62¢ $5 20h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $18 20h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes $1 21h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 22h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 22h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $4 22h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 49¢ $1 22h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $6 23h
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $8 23h
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 25h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes $1 25h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes $12 3d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes $10 4d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes $10 5d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 14¢ $20 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11.68 · official $11.68 (match) · 30 history records