Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T05:45:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

9B 0x9b7a…2d25 sports 22 markets active 2h ago coverage 8d

TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample

✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$31 (-11%) realized −$28 · open −$3

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +60% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +45% what you keep after slip

Net edge+45%after slip

Net WR52%break-even

Win rate52%11W / 10L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$13per market

Trades / day2.8pace

Fees−$4est.

Kalshi-fit73%portable

Net worth$44now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days−$51

7 days−$32

14 days−$35

30 days−$35

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +52%

net ROI/market (all)+44.9%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	18	+78.9%	+61.8%	56%	56%	-23.8%
≤30d	21	+60.1%	+44.9%	52%	52%	-22.7%
≤90d	21	+60.1%	+44.9%	52%	52%	-22.7%
all	21	+60.1%	+44.9%	52%	52%	-22.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover2.8 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+44.9%	52%	-22.7%
10%	+31.0%	52%	-30.1%
15%	+18.4%	52%	-36.8%
20%	+6.8%	48%	-43.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 21% · top 2 36% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +60% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -58% → late +167% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$11 vs −$15 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.77 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage

Net worth$44

Realized−$28

Unrealized−$3

Win rate (resolved)52%

Wins / losses11 / 10

Est. fees paid−$4

Open positions1

Markets (closed)21 / 22

History coverage8d

Avg bet$13

Trades / day2.8

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 21 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5	Under	26¢	24¢	$47	$44	−$3 (-6%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5	Jun 18	$51	−$51	-100%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5	Jun 17	$4	+$13	+365%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score	Jun 16	$4	+$5	+124%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5	Jun 15	$4	−$4	-100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5	Jun 15	$3	+$10	+307%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5)	Jun 15	$3	+$9	+276%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score	Jun 14	$3	+$7	+206%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5	Jun 14	$3	+$4	+124%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5	Jun 14	$3	+$12	+388%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 13	$25	+$25	+97%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5	Jun 13	$3	+$5	+152%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 12	$25	−$25	-100%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5	Jun 12	$4	−$4	-100%
Will COD Meknès win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 12	$10	−$10	-100%
Will Difaâ Hassani El Jadida win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 12	$10	−$10	-100%
Will OC Safi vs. Kawkab AC end in a draw?	Jun 12	$10	−$10	-100%
Will FathUnionSport vs. Maghreb AS de Fès end in a draw?	Jun 12	$10	+$18	+180%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw?	Jun 12	$26	−$26	-100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	Jun 12	$25	+$11	+44%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score	Jun 11	$4	−$4	-100%
Will Helsingborgs IF win on 2026-06-11?	Jun 11	$10	−$10	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5	BUY Under	26¢	$48	1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5	BUY Under	25¢	$51	12h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5	BUY Over	21¢	$4	3d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5	BUY Under	25¢	$4	3d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	44¢	$4	3d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	24¢	$3	4d
Spread: Sweden (-1.5)	BUY Sweden	26¢	$3	4d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	32¢	$3	4d
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5	BUY Under	20¢	$3	5d
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	44¢	$3	5d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	39¢	$3	6d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5	BUY Under	31¢	$4	7d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	BUY Yes	50¢	$25	7d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12?	BUY Yes	53¢	$25	7d
Will Difaâ Hassani El Jadida win on 2026-06-12?	BUY Yes	46¢	$10	7d
Will COD Meknès win on 2026-06-12?	BUY Yes	41¢	$10	7d
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	38¢	$4	7d
Will OC Safi vs. Kawkab AC end in a draw?	BUY Yes	37¢	$10	7d
Will FathUnionSport vs. Maghreb AS de Fès end in a draw?	BUY Yes	35¢	$10	7d
Will Helsingborgs IF win on 2026-06-11?	BUY Yes	39¢	$10	7d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw?	BUY Yes	32¢	$26	7d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	BUY Yes	69¢	$25	7d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.22 · official $44.22 (match) · 43 history records