Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T22:22:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9B 0x9b79…ad11 crypto 13 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$1 (+1%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate42%5W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day33.0pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 79% −$7
other 21% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-1.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +8.5% -1.9% 42% 33% -13.4%
≤30d 12 +8.5% -1.9% 42% 33% -13.4%
≤90d 12 +8.5% -1.9% 42% 33% -13.4%
all 12 +8.5% -1.9% 42% 33% -13.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover33.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -1.9% 33% -13.4%
10% ← realistic here -11.3% 33% -21.7%
15% -19.8% 33% -29.2%
20% -27.7% 25% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 66% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +33% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$6 · ×1.21 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses5 / 7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)12 / 13
History coverage1d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day33.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Yes 56¢ 56¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 26 $16 −$3 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 26 $5 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 26 $31 −$7 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 26 $5 −$3 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 26 $16 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 26 $16 −$5 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 26 $5 +$9 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 26 $16 −$10 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 26 $5 +$13 +252%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $18 +$11 +62%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $5 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET SELL Down 48¢ $2 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET SELL Down 37¢ $3 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $5 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $5 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $5 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $5 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET SELL Up 40¢ $3 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $5 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET SELL Down 35¢ $3 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $5 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET SELL Up 44¢ $9 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $5 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET SELL Up 46¢ $1 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $5 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET SELL Up 14¢ $2 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $5 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET SELL Down 15¢ $2 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $5 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $5 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $5 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET SELL Up 4¢ $0 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $5 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $6 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $5 48m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.94 · official $2.94 (match) · 49 history records