Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:28:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9B 0x9b78…d8de other 94 markets active 1d ago coverage 449d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$10 (-0%) realized −$11 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate36%32W / 58L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$70per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$9
14 days+$9
30 days+$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 37% +$17
sports 25% −$3
other 24% −$24
politics 11% $0
economics 1% $0
culture 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
tech 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -1.1% -10.5% 22% 0% -10.4%
≤30d 24 +0.3% -9.2% 29% 8% -8.8%
≤90d 33 -1.2% -10.6% 30% 6% -9.5%
all 90 -3.9% -13.0% 36% 2% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.0% 2% -9.7%
10% -21.4% 1% -18.4%
15% -29.0% 0% -26.2%
20% -35.9% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 76% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -5% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

449d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses32 / 58
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions4
Markets (closed)90 / 94
History coverage449d
Avg bet$70
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 90 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Alberta join the US? No 96¢ 96¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 4¢ 100¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+2598%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 76¢ 82¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+9%)
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $105 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $50 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 15 $8 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $18 $0 -2%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $7 $0 -6%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $324 −$4 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $225 −$6 -3%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $116 −$1 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $111 +$4 +3%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $109 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $123 $0 -0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 07 $4 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $32 −$1 -2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $230 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $73 +$18 +25%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 01 $96 +$1 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 31 $90 −$2 -2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 30 $39 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 29 $8 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 28 $3 −$1 -17%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 28 $19 +$1 +4%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 28 $98 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 22 $93 −$3 -3%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 18 $88 +$11 +12%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 15 $100 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 15 $100 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 26 $588 $0 +0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 26 $24 −$10 -39%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $546 −$3 -0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 24 $15 −$1 -8%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 23 $546 +$1 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $546 +$1 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $546 −$1 -0%
Will 'Jurassic World: Rebirth' have the best domestic opening weekend Dec 13 $27 $0 +1%
Will Solana dip to $80 in June? Dec 13 $12 $0 +1%
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 25 $7 $0 +0%
Will Ferrari be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Jun 23 $9 $0 +0%
Will federal spending decrease by less than $250b between Q4 2024 and Jun 21 $9 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? Jun 21 $6 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before July? Jun 20 $9 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 205–219 times June 13–20? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Solana reach $220 in June? Jun 19 $9 $0 +0%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 18 $11 $0 +2%
Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in 2025? Jun 17 $3 $0 -1%
Will Lewis Hamilton finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? Jun 16 $11 $0 +0%
Will Raphinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 16 $8 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 16 $10 $0 +1%
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 Jun 14 $10 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on June 30? Jun 14 $10 −$2 -16%
Will Elon tweet 175–199 times June 6–13? Jun 14 $23 −$4 -17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $105 24h
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $12 36h
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $93 36h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $21 41h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $14 41h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $15 41h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $50 42h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 86¢ $8 46h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 86¢ $8 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 7¢ $7 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 7¢ $7 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $4 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 77¢ $88 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 77¢ $18 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 76¢ $24 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 76¢ $81 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 78¢ $51 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 78¢ $53 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 78¢ $2 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 82¢ $41 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 79¢ $68 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 63¢ $15 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 63¢ $84 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 63¢ $8 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 63¢ $107 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 4¢ $4 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 4¢ $4 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.66 · official $0.00 · 323 history records