Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T22:26:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9B 0x9b74…0c15 politics 96 markets active 1h ago coverage 697d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$20 (-0%) realized −$20 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate1%1W / 95L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$174per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 97% −$19
sports 1% $0
other 1% $0
world 1% −$1
tech 0% −$1
crypto 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-14.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 7 -0.0% -9.6% 14% 0% -9.6%
all 96 -5.4% -14.4% 1% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.4% 0% -9.6%
10% -22.6% 0% -18.3%
15% -30.1% 0% -26.2%
20% -36.9% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -11% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
0.8 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

697d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$20
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)1%
Wins / losses1 / 95
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)96 / 96
History coverage697d
Avg bet$174
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 96 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 26 $51 $0 -0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $51 $0 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? May 28 $51 $0 -0%
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 22 $51 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $51 $0 -0%
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 13 $51 $0 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 10 $52 $0 +0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 28 $52 $0 +0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 20 $52 $0 +0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 18 $52 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 14 $52 $0 +0%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Mar 11 $52 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 10 $52 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 09 $52 $0 +0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 05 $52 $0 +0%
Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Mar 02 $52 $0 +0%
Will Kweon Seong-dong win the 2026 Gangwon Province gubernatorial elec Feb 24 $49 $0 -0%
Will Pedro Tinoco de Faria win the 2026 Portugal presidential election Nov 25 $49 $0 -0%
Will Torino win the Serie A? Jan 30 $2 $0 +0%
Will Atalanta win the UEFA Champions League? Jan 30 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the Eastern Conference? Jan 30 $3 $0 +0%
Will De’Aaron Fox lead the NBA in scoring? Jan 30 $3 $0 +0%
Will Jayson Tatum lead the NBA in scoring? Jan 30 $3 $0 +0%
Will Athletic Bilbao win the UEFA Europa League? Jan 30 $3 $0 +0%
Will Valencia CF win La Liga? Jan 30 $4 $0 +0%
Will Alexander Isak be the top goalscorer in the EPL? Jan 30 $4 $0 +0%
Leicester City wins the Premier League? Jan 30 $4 $0 +0%
Will Stuttgart win the UEFA Champions League? Jan 30 $3 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $5,000.00 in December? Jan 30 $4 $0 +0%
Will Christian McCaffrey win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? Jan 30 $4 $0 +0%
Will Chris Jones win NFL Defensive Player of the Year? Jan 30 $4 $0 +0%
Will weed be rescheduled in 2024? Jan 30 $4 $0 +0%
Will Putin remain President of Russia through 2024? Jan 30 $6 $0 +0%
Will CDU/CSU win the second most seats in the next German election? Dec 21 $0 $0 -2%
Will Bobby Jindal be Trump's HHS Secretary? Dec 21 $0 $0 -3%
Will Usyk vs. Fury have no official winner? Dec 21 $0 $0 -2%
Will Will Howard win the Heisman Trophy? Dec 21 $2 $0 +0%
Democrats win popular vote by 3-4%? Dec 21 $4 $0 +0%
180-199 MPs vote to impeach Yoon? Dec 10 $0 $0 -4%
Will Dak Prescott be the top Fantasy Quarterback? Dec 10 $0 $0 -0%
Will Robert Giuffra be Trump's Attorney General? Dec 10 $1 $0 -0%
Will the Patriots win Super Bowl 2025? Dec 10 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Bills win the AFC East? Dec 10 $2 $0 +0%
Will another driver win the 2024 F1 season? Dec 10 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Saints win the NFC Championship? Nov 26 $0 $0 -0%
Will Red Bull win the 2024 F1 Constructor’s Championship? Nov 26 $1 $0 -0%
Tottenham Hotspur wins the Premier League? Nov 26 $1 $0 -0%
Ding Liren plays in 2024 World Chess Championship? Nov 26 $3 $0 +0%
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2024 Las Vegas Grand Prix? Nov 26 $4 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the UEFA Champions League? Nov 17 $1 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $51 1h
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $51 13h
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $51 16d
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $51 17d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $51 29d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $51 30d
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $51 35d
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $51 35d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $51 38d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $51 39d
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $51 44d
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $51 45d
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $52 77d
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $52 77d
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $52 90d
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $52 90d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $52 98d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $52 98d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $52 100d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $52 101d
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? SELL No 100¢ $52 103d
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? BUY No 100¢ $52 104d
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $52 107d
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 100¢ $52 107d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $52 108d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $52 109d
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 99¢ $52 109d
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $52 110d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $52 113d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $52 114d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 208 history records