Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T03:58:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
9B 0x9b71…43fa sports 33 markets active 2h ago coverage 267d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$39 (+6%) realized +$99 · open −$60
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate58%18W / 13L
Drawdown62%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$15now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days+$8
14 days+$8
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 71% +$47
other 16% −$67
crypto 10% −$4
world 2% −$10
politics 1% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-6.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +47.3% +33.2% 100% 100% +20.8%
≤30d 3 -1.8% -11.2% 67% 67% +0.8%
≤90d 6 -17.4% -25.3% 50% 50% -33.1%
all 31 +3.9% -6.0% 58% 48% -3.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.0% 48% -3.1%
10% -15.0% 45% -12.4%
15% -23.2% 39% -20.8%
20% -30.8% 29% -28.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% too few recent
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +17% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$11 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.24 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

267d coverage
Net worth$15
Realized+$99
Unrealized−$60
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses18 / 13
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)31 / 33
History coverage267d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown62%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
United States to score first vs. Türkiye? Yes 61¢ 100¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+64%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Yes 55¢ $70 $7 −$63 (-90%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mexico to score first vs. Czechia? Jun 26 $5 +$4 +70%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 26 $20 +$5 +24%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $5 −$5 -99%
Rockets vs. Lakers Apr 30 $100 −$30 -30%
Lakers vs. Warriors Apr 30 $20 +$20 +101%
Celtics vs. Knicks Apr 10 $20 −$20 -98%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Mar 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Mar 24 $5 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Mar 24 $10 +$8 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Mar 24 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Trump visit China by March 31? Mar 24 $2 $0 -11%
Seahawks vs. Patriots Feb 10 $70 +$30 +43%
Celtics vs. Pacers Dec 27 $74 +$3 +4%
Rockets vs. Lakers Dec 27 $25 +$23 +92%
Lakers vs. Celtics Dec 05 $20 −$20 -100%
Mavericks vs. Lakers Nov 29 $59 +$12 +20%
Bengals vs. Ravens Nov 29 $15 +$43 +285%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 2AM ET Oct 15 $5 +$1 +28%
Blue Jays vs. Mariners Oct 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 14, 7PM ET Oct 15 $2 +$2 +79%
Dodgers vs. Brewers Oct 15 $15 +$13 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 14, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Oct 14 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 14, 6PM ET Oct 14 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Government shutdown end October 15+? Oct 14 $5 +$10 +193%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 14, 5PM ET Oct 14 $3 +$1 +42%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 26 to October 3, 202 Oct 03 $9 −$6 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 6PM ET Oct 03 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 3, 2AM ET Oct 03 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 7PM ET Oct 02 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 5AM ET Oct 02 $8 +$8 +100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 26 to October 3, 202 Oct 02 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $41 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 70¢ $20 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 47¢ $10 1h
United States to score first vs. Türkiye? BUY Yes 61¢ $5 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 80¢ $20 25h
Mexico to score first vs. Czechia? BUY Yes 58¢ $5 27h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 69¢ $5 22d
Rockets vs. Lakers SELL Rockets 99¢ $72 56d
Rockets vs. Lakers BUY Rockets 96¢ $70 56d
Rockets vs. Lakers BUY Lakers 58¢ $30 57d
Lakers vs. Warriors BUY Lakers 49¢ $20 77d
Celtics vs. Knicks BUY Celtics 29¢ $20 77d
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 93d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET SELL Down 50¢ $7 93d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $5 93d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET SELL Up 45¢ $9 93d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $5 93d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET SELL Down 50¢ $9 93d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $5 93d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $2 93d
Will Trump visit China by March 31? SELL Yes $2 93d
Will Trump visit China by March 31? BUY Yes $2 93d
Seahawks vs. Patriots BUY Seahawks 70¢ $70 137d
Celtics vs. Pacers SELL Celtics 100¢ $77 181d
Celtics vs. Pacers BUY Celtics 96¢ $74 181d
Rockets vs. Lakers BUY Rockets 52¢ $25 182d
Lakers vs. Celtics BUY Lakers 25¢ $20 202d
Mavericks vs. Lakers BUY Lakers 83¢ $59 209d
Bengals vs. Ravens BUY Bengals 26¢ $15 210d
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 2AM ET SELL Up 60¢ $6 253d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15.17 · official $15.16 (match) · 71 history records