Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T20:40:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9B 0x9b6b…b818 other 37 markets active 1h ago coverage 302d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$24 (+2%) realized +$24 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate35%13W / 24L
Drawdown24%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$2
14 days+$1
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 54% −$1
other 33% +$9
crypto 9% $0
politics 3% +$17
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-5.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -1.3% -10.7% 50% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 15 -1.0% -10.4% 40% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 20 -0.5% -10.0% 35% 0% -9.5%
all 37 +4.4% -5.6% 35% 8% -7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.6% 8% -7.7%
10% -14.6% 8% -16.6%
15% -22.9% 5% -24.6%
20% -30.4% 3% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 81% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
77% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$1 · ×3.23 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.81 per $1 lost it wins $3.81
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

302d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$24
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses13 / 24
Open positions0
Markets (closed)37 / 37
History coverage302d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown24%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 37 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 24 $64 +$1 +1%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 24 $112 $0 -0%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 24 $58 +$1 +1%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 24 $47 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 23 $63 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 22 $5 −$1 -19%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 20 $66 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $46 +$1 +3%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $30 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $10 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $57 −$1 -1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 27 $120 −$2 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 26 $35 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 26 $13 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 26 $37 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 23 $5 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 23 $5 $0 +5%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 23 $42 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 22 $46 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 18 $23 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Dec 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 11 $7 $0 +4%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Dec 11 $98 −$3 -3%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Dec 11 $47 +$11 +24%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 26 $11 $0 +0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $3 $0 +0%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-30? Nov 25 $47 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Nov 19 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 by December 31? Oct 24 $47 $0 +0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 23 $12 $0 -2%
Will Ethereum reach $5000 in October? Oct 23 $37 $0 -0%
Will Rodrigo Paz win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Oct 21 $35 +$17 +48%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 28 $7 $0 +0%
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 28 $7 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 165–179 times August 22–August 29? Aug 28 $1 +$3 +200%
Will Democrats 66 win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamen Aug 27 $36 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 91¢ $65 32m
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 90¢ $35 2h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 90¢ $29 2h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $55 5h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $55 10h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 91¢ $58 16h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 90¢ $28 17h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 90¢ $29 17h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 90¢ $1 17h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $10 19h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 22h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $9 22h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 87¢ $63 37h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 87¢ $63 45h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $10 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $11 4d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 22¢ $14 4d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 22¢ $4 4d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 22¢ $8 4d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 22¢ $11 4d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 22¢ $37 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $48 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $2 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $7 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $1 5d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $3 5d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $9 5d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $44 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 147 history records