Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T23:20:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9B 0x9b6a…7e2c other 38 markets active 1h ago coverage 30d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$147 (-7%) realized −$127 · open −$20
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate41%15W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$54per market
Trades / day5.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$238
7 days+$194
14 days+$94
30 days+$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% +$86
crypto 41% −$118
sports 6% +$36
politics 4% −$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +29.8% +17.5% 47% 41% +20.4%
≤30d 37 -1.7% -11.0% 41% 35% -4.3%
≤90d 37 -1.7% -11.0% 41% 35% -4.3%
all 37 -1.7% -11.0% 41% 35% -4.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 35% -4.3%
10% -19.6% 32% -13.5%
15% -27.3% 27% -21.9%
20% -34.5% 24% -29.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 57% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -30% → late +25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$52 vs −$35 · ×1.49 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$127
Unrealized−$20
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses15 / 22
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)37 / 38
History coverage30d
Avg bet$54
Trades / day5.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $92 +$192 +208%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $316 +$113 +36%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 15 $56 −$7 -12%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 15 $31 −$7 -21%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $54 −$44 -80%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 15 $31 −$5 -15%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $41 +$38 +93%
Sweden to score first vs. Tunisia? Jun 15 $20 +$14 +67%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $20 +$2 +10%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $194 −$125 -64%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $54 −$44 -81%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $4 +$17 +414%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $15 +$9 +57%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $34 +$84 +250%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -96%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $30 −$30 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 08 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 08 $24 +$17 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 08 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 07 $10 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 07 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 07 $21 +$6 +28%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $23 +$6 +28%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 06 $63 −$62 -98%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Egypt? Jun 06 $6 −$6 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 06 $32 −$12 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET May 26 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET May 26 $183 −$150 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET May 26 $131 −$125 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET May 26 $235 +$255 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET May 26 $16 +$32 +205%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET May 26 $41 −$21 -52%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 26 $2 $0 +2%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele May 26 $82 −$14 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET May 26 $57 −$29 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET May 20 $16 −$16 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 40¢ $285 35m
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 13¢ $21 1h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 13¢ $21 1h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $51 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 16¢ $21 2h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 51¢ $105 2h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 53¢ $101 2h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 3h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 19¢ $7 3h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 51¢ $152 3h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 49¢ $71 3h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 3h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 42¢ $68 3h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 36¢ $171 3h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 13¢ $21 4h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 13¢ $21 4h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 12¢ $49 4h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 4h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 13¢ $21 4h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 5¢ $24 4h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $9 4h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 5h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 3¢ $8 5h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 3¢ $27 12h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 9¢ $26 12h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 12h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $47 13h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 3¢ $27 13h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 10¢ $31 13h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 6¢ $31 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.06 · official $0.06 (match) · 163 history records