Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T02:18:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
9B 0x9b64…67bb sports 23 markets active 1h ago coverage 47d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$28 (+6%) realized +$32 · open −$4
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate71%15W / 6L
Drawdown89%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$23now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$19
7 days+$34
14 days+$34
30 days+$30
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 83% +$49
other 11% +$6
crypto 6% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)+1.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +12.0% +1.4% 67% 60% -0.7%
≤30d 16 +5.0% -5.0% 62% 56% -1.8%
≤90d 21 +11.9% +1.3% 71% 57% +2.7%
all 21 +11.9% +1.3% 71% 57% +2.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.3% 57% +2.7%
10% -8.4% 52% -7.2%
15% -17.3% 52% -16.1%
20% -25.4% 29% -24.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$14 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.7 per $1 lost it wins $1.7
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

47d coverage
Net worth$23
Realized+$32
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses15 / 6
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions2
Markets (closed)21 / 23
History coverage47d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown89%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 21 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Argentina 69¢ 58¢ $25 $21 −$4 (-15%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 82¢ 76¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 1.5 Jun 28 $25 +$1 +4%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 27 $25 +$12 +46%
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $25 +$16 +64%
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) Jun 26 $25 +$15 +60%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $25 −$25 -99%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $25 +$10 +42%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $26 +$19 +76%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $25 −$7 -26%
Morocco vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $25 −$1 -4%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Switzerland O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $25 +$17 +66%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $25 +$13 +50%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $25 +$13 +52%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $25 −$25 -99%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 23 $25 −$25 -99%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs FlyQuest - Map 1 Winner Jun 23 $1 +$1 +50%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs FlyQuest (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $4 −$4 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - PGL Astana Group S May 28 $11 +$11 +97%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs G2 (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 28 $20 +$3 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET May 25 $20 +$2 +9%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO5) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 17 $30 +$14 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET May 14 $8 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 74¢ $26 1h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 69¢ $25 9h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 70¢ $25 9h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 68¢ $25 10h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $42 22h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 60¢ $25 29h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 69¢ $25 29h
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) BUY Senegal 62¢ $25 32h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 70¢ $25 2d
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 56¢ $26 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 45¢ $19 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 59¢ $25 3d
Morocco vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score SELL No 63¢ $24 3d
Switzerland vs. Canada: Switzerland O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $42 3d
Morocco vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score BUY No 64¢ $25 3d
Switzerland vs. Canada: Switzerland O/U 0.5 BUY Over 60¢ $0 3d
Switzerland vs. Canada: Switzerland O/U 0.5 BUY Over 60¢ $25 3d
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 70¢ $25 4d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $25 4d
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 63¢ $25 4d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY 65¢ $25 4d
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs FlyQuest - Map 1 Winner BUY FlyQuest 66¢ $1 22d
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs FlyQuest (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY Liquid 51¢ $4 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET SELL Up 91¢ $22 33d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $20 33d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO5) - PGL Astana Playoffs SELL Spirit 90¢ $44 41d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO5) - PGL Astana Playoffs BUY Spirit 61¢ $30 41d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $8 44d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $8 44d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - PGL Astana Group S BUY Aurora Gaming 50¢ $11 45d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $23.05 · official $23.05 (match) · 41 history records