Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:13:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
9B 0x9b60…85e0 other 41 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$1,332 (+20%) realized +$1,353 · open −$21
Gross ROI / mkt +38% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +15% what you keep after slip
Net edge+15%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%10W / 13L
Drawdown43%max
Avg bet$165per market
Trades / day13.6pace
Fees−$50est.
Kalshi-fit49%portable
Net worth$3,283now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 49% +$1,274
other 44% −$52
crypto 4% +$258
world 2% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)+25.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +38.3% +25.1% 43% 43% +32.8%
≤30d 23 +38.3% +25.1% 43% 43% +32.8%
≤90d 23 +38.3% +25.1% 43% 43% +32.8%
all 23 +38.3% +25.1% 43% 43% +32.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +25.1% 43% +32.8%
10% +13.1% 43% +20.1%
15% +2.2% 43% +8.5%
20% -7.8% 43% -2.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +47% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +38% · $-wt +47% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +75% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$230 vs −$61 · ×3.76 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.89 per $1 lost it wins $2.89
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$3,283
Realized+$1,353
Unrealized−$21
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses10 / 13
Est. fees paid−$50
Open positions16
Markets (closed)23 / 41
History coverage6d
Avg bet$165
Trades / day13.6
Drawdown43%
Kalshi-fit49%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 23 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Qatar finish last in Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 74¢ 57¢ $776 $600 −$177 (-23%)
Will Tunisia finish last in Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 56¢ 84¢ $275 $412 +$138 (+50%)
Will Mexico reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 54¢ 64¢ $275 $323 +$48 (+18%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 59¢ 62¢ $300 $313 +$13 (+4%)
Will Belgium reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 38¢ 36¢ $300 $284 −$16 (-5%)
Will Panama finish last in Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 59¢ 54¢ $300 $272 −$28 (-9%)
Will Japan reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 42¢ 44¢ $250 $259 +$9 (+4%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Over 50¢ 50¢ $250 $252 +$2 (+1%)
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 39¢ 39¢ $150 $151 +$1 (+1%)
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 21¢ 30¢ $75 $105 +$30 (+40%)
World Cup Goals H2H: Mbappe vs. Kane Mbappe 54¢ 42¢ $125 $98 −$27 (-22%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Over 32¢ 30¢ $100 $95 −$5 (-5%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Over 19¢ 18¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-3%)
Will Ferran Torres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $35 $33 −$2 (-6%)
Will Federico Valverde score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 60¢ 66¢ $24 $27 +$3 (+12%)
Will Pedri score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 89¢ 42¢ $18 $8 −$9 (-53%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $304 +$205 +67%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $304 +$258 +85%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $102 +$231 +226%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $254 +$289 +114%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $464 +$318 +69%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $51 +$243 +474%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $203 +$214 +105%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $433 −$430 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 13 $203 −$203 -100%
Will Granit Xhaka score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $17 −$5 -29%
Will Kai Havertz score 5+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $1 $0 -10%
Will Jérémy Doku score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $14 $0 -2%
Will Switzerland be the highest-scoring team in Group B during the Gro Jun 13 $8 −$2 -25%
Will Renato Veiga be in Portugal's Starting 11? Jun 13 $3 $0 -1%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $183 +$208 +114%
World Cup: Messi to Score 2+ Penalties? Jun 12 $7 $0 -3%
Will Alphonso Davies score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $3 $0 -9%
Will United States be the furthest advancing host nation at the World Jun 12 $43 −$1 -2%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $253 +$171 +67%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $50 −$50 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $208 +$158 +76%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 11 $102 −$100 -98%
Will a player representing Ecuador be the top goalscorer at the 2026 F Jun 10 $5 −$2 -36%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 19¢ $51 54m
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 32¢ $102 54m
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 50¢ $254 54m
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 55¢ $51 14h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 17¢ $51 17h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 30¢ $102 17h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 46¢ $254 17h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY No 59¢ $304 22h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 53¢ $254 22h
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) AND Spread: Scotland (-1.5) BUY 16¢ $51 33h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY 38¢ $153 35h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $203 35h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 SELL Over 57¢ $63 44h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 SELL Over 57¢ $5 44h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 60¢ $180 46h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Over 50¢ $175 47h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Over 49¢ $28 47h
Will Granit Xhaka score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 60¢ $12 2d
Will Kai Havertz score 5+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 2d
Will Jérémy Doku score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 71¢ $14 2d
Will Switzerland be the highest-scoring team in Group B during the Gro SELL No 32¢ $6 2d
Will Renato Veiga be in Portugal's Starting 11? SELL No 75¢ $3 2d
Will Renato Veiga be in Portugal's Starting 11? BUY No 75¢ $3 2d
Will Kai Havertz score 5+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 2d
Will Jérémy Doku score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 72¢ $14 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 BUY Over 55¢ $155 2d
Will Switzerland be the highest-scoring team in Group B during the Gro BUY No 42¢ $8 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 BUY Over 55¢ $6 2d
Will Granit Xhaka score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 84¢ $17 2d
World Cup: Messi to Score 2+ Penalties? SELL No 44¢ $3 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,282.86 · official $3,282.99 (match) · 96 history records