Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T03:51:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9B 0x9b5e…ba7e sports 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$144 (-5%) realized −$140 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -49% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -57% what you keep after slip
Net edge-57%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate22%2W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$309per market
Trades / day19.0pace
Fees−$63est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$321now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$1,244
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-53.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -48.7% -53.6% 22% 22% -50.5%
≤30d 9 -48.7% -53.6% 22% 22% -50.5%
≤90d 9 -48.7% -53.6% 22% 22% -50.5%
all 9 -48.7% -53.6% 22% 22% -50.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -53.6% 22% -50.5%
10% -58.0% 22% -55.2%
15% -62.1% 22% -59.5%
20% -65.8% 11% -63.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 77% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -45% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -49% · $-wt -45% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$234 vs −$244 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.27 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$321
Realized−$140
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses2 / 7
Est. fees paid−$63
Open positions1
Markets (closed)9 / 10
History coverage1d
Avg bet$309
Trades / day19.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Spirit 46¢ 46¢ $325 $321 −$4 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $305 −$188 -62%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 2nd Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $308 −$308 -100%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $294 +$106 +36%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $358 +$361 +101%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $305 −$300 -98%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 18 $305 −$300 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 6.5 Corners Jun 18 $305 −$41 -14%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 18 $277 −$270 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $300 −$300 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) BUY Spirit 46¢ $330 1h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? SELL Yes 18¢ $117 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 2nd Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Over 44¢ $206 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 2nd Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Over 44¢ $79 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 2nd Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Over 44¢ $8 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 2nd Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Over 44¢ $2 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 2nd Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Over 44¢ $8 1h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 45¢ $305 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 2nd Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Over 44¢ $6 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 64¢ $400 7h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL FURIA 100¢ $720 7h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 46¢ $294 9h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 49¢ $358 9h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 44¢ $305 9h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Qatar 49¢ $305 9h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 6.5 Corners SELL Over 39¢ $264 9h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 6.5 Corners BUY Over 44¢ $305 9h
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) BUY FURIA 22¢ $277 10h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 50¢ $300 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $321.47 · official $321.47 (match) · 20 history records