Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T01:20:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
9B 0x9b5d…7501 crypto 131 markets active 0h ago coverage 120d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$17,123 (+13%) realized +$19,222 · open −$2,099
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate54%70W / 60L
Whale WR76%big bets
Drawdown15%max
Avg bet$1,034per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$1,260est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$25,879now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$27,519
7 days+$25,710
14 days+$25,523
30 days+$25,523
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% +$23,284
crypto 2% −$352
other 0% −$435
finance 0% −$82
tech 0% +$140
weather 0% −$47
world 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-5.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 +54.0% +39.3% 65% 56% +13.5%
≤30d 51 +47.0% +33.0% 65% 55% +13.0%
≤90d 54 +38.8% +25.6% 61% 52% +12.7%
all 130 +4.7% -5.3% 54% 38% +11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.3% 38% +11.6%
10% -14.3% 33% +0.9%
15% -22.6% 27% -8.8%
20% -30.2% 25% -17.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +24% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 76% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -13% → late +23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$476 vs −$145 · ×3.27 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.82 per $1 lost it wins $3.82
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

120d coverage
Net worth$25,879
Realized+$19,222
Unrealized−$2,099
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses70 / 60
Whale WR (big bets)76%
Est. fees paid−$1,260
Open positions1
Markets (closed)130 / 131
History coverage120d
Avg bet$1,034
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown15%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 130 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Yes 48¢ 44¢ $27,978 $25,879 −$2,099 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 39 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $24,489 +$3,954 +16%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $21,569 +$2,938 +14%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $9,554 +$1,001 +10%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $10,141 +$10,398 +102%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $2,007 +$232 +12%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $7,125 +$2,804 +39%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $5,584 +$1,544 +28%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $2,524 +$3,059 +121%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings Jun 16 $1,065 +$827 +78%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $1,647 +$57 +3%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $693 +$951 +137%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $370 +$324 +88%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $190 +$181 +95%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $1,695 −$1,505 -89%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $190 −$188 -99%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $1,294 +$401 +31%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $568 +$540 +95%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $1,478 −$1,453 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $1,358 +$125 +9%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $757 +$599 +79%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $914 −$247 -27%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $188 +$44 +23%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 197.5 Jun 14 $1,833 −$1,800 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $1,257 +$1,348 +107%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $259 +$295 +114%
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics Jun 13 $105 +$87 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -94%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $229 +$140 +61%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $203 −$148 -73%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $253 +$130 +51%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $51 −$1 -1%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $82 −$23 -28%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5 Jun 12 $58 −$58 -99%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 Jun 12 $15 −$15 -97%
Spread: Atlanta Dream (-3.5) Jun 11 $101 −$100 -99%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $74 +$28 +38%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $111 +$28 +25%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $204 −$201 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $97 +$3 +4%
Spread: Los Angeles Sparks (-7.5) Jun 10 $476 −$469 -99%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 3.5 Jun 10 $114 +$70 +62%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-4.5) Jun 10 $404 −$339 -84%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 10 $301 +$151 +50%
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-7.5) Jun 09 $698 −$688 -99%
Spread: Indiana Fever (-5.5) Jun 09 $117 +$75 +65%
Spread: New York Liberty (-13.5) Jun 09 $142 +$46 +32%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5 Jun 08 $299 +$277 +93%
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5 Jun 07 $122 −$120 -98%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 07 $205 +$217 +106%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 07 $43 −$13 -31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $17,856 3m
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $10,557 7m
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 99¢ $28,443 1h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 85¢ $24,489 2h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $24,506 2h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 89¢ $19,982 2h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 64¢ $1,587 2h
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $10,555 2h
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 0.5 BUY Over 90¢ $9,554 3h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $20,539 4h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $10,141 22h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 99¢ $2,239 22h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 88¢ $2,007 22h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 99¢ $9,929 22h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 70¢ $7,125 22h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $7,128 22h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 77¢ $5,584 23h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $5,583 23h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $2,524 24h
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings SELL Dallas Wings 92¢ $1,893 24h
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings BUY Dallas Wings 51¢ $1,065 24h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 99¢ $1,703 25h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 96¢ $1,647 25h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $1,645 25h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $693 28h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $695 28h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 52¢ $370 28h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $371 28h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $190 31h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 1.5 SELL Over 10¢ $190 31h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25,878.88 · official $25,878.88 (match) · 275 history records