Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T22:51:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9B 0x9b5c…0b1a other 48 markets active 1h ago coverage 339d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$8,300 (-9%) realized −$7,879 · open −$421
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate70%31W / 13L
Whale WR91%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,879per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$1,125now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$170
7 days−$170
14 days−$170
30 days−$267
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 34% +$1,843
crypto 25% +$215
sports 12% −$6,368
other 11% −$4,168
world 10% −$61
economics 8% +$246
tech 0% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-17.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +37.0% +24.0% 43% 43% -32.8%
≤30d 8 +19.9% +8.5% 38% 38% -41.4%
≤90d 8 +19.9% +8.5% 38% 38% -41.4%
all 44 -8.6% -17.3% 70% 20% -17.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.3% 20% -17.6%
10% ← realistic here -25.2% 16% -25.5%
15% -32.4% 14% -32.7%
20% -39.0% 7% -39.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 51% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -35% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
71% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 91% (≥$3,400) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$108 vs −$862 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.3 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

339d coverage
Net worth$1,125
Realized−$7,879
Unrealized−$421
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses31 / 13
Whale WR (big bets)91%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)44 / 48
History coverage339d
Avg bet$1,879
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $621 $336 −$285 (-46%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $260 $295 +$35 (+14%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 66¢ 68¢ $265 $273 +$8 (+3%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $400 $220 −$180 (-45%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $221 −$173 -78%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $12 +$43 +347%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $21 −$8 -39%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $62 +$7 +11%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $102 +$135 +133%
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -93%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $279 −$164 -58%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $100 −$98 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Zhang Mar 08 $3,400 −$3,400 -100%
SBF released from custody in 2025? Mar 08 $100 −$100 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Park vs. Taira Mar 08 $300 −$300 -100%
Taylor Swift pregnant in 2025? Mar 08 $2,859 −$2,859 -100%
Boxing: Canelo Álvarez vs. Terence Crawford Mar 08 $3,257 −$3,257 -100%
Will the Government shutdown end November 8-11? Nov 10 $1,200 +$433 +36%
Will the Government shutdown end November 12-15? Nov 10 $100 +$45 +45%
Will DegenPing win the Synthetix trading competition? Nov 06 $100 −$96 -96%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 06 $11,505 +$1,272 +11%
Will Samia Suluhu Hassan win the 2025 Tanzania presidential election? Nov 04 $174 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $106,000 on November 3? Nov 04 $500 +$16 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $118,000 on November 3? Nov 04 $1,519 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $106,000 on November 2? Nov 02 $2,016 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $102,000 on October 31? Oct 31 $2,014 +$2 +0%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025? Oct 30 $2,000 +$14 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $4,300 on October 29? Oct 29 $3,589 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $120,000 on October 28? Oct 29 $2,586 +$3 +0%
Will Donald Trump visit South Korea in 2025? Oct 28 $4,449 +$16 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $4,400 on October 28? Oct 28 $2,000 +$2 +0%
Will Donald Trump visit Japan in 2025? Oct 28 $516 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $240 on October 27? Oct 28 $4,065 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,500 on October 26? Oct 26 $4,060 +$4 +0%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025? Oct 26 $5,000 +$108 +2%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? Oct 25 $216 +$17 +8%
Will Shigeru Ishiba be the first leader out in 2025? Oct 22 $3,722 +$84 +2%
Another GTA VI trailer released in 2025? Oct 10 $200 +$16 +8%
Will Israel strike Turkey by December 31? Oct 09 $3,654 +$68 +2%
Will Marco Francis win the 2025 Seychelles presidential election? Oct 03 $12,500 +$73 +1%
US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine? Sep 25 $300 −$238 -79%
UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. Sterling Sep 12 $2,400 +$295 +12%
Will Google have the top AI model on July 31? Aug 03 $100 +$10 +10%
No change in Fed interest rates after July 2025 meeting? Aug 03 $5,000 +$208 +4%
Will Trump try to fire Powell by August 31? Jul 25 $98 +$6 +6%
Will Ethereum reach $3800 in July? Jul 20 $300 +$176 +59%
Earthquake 7.0 or above by July 31? Jul 20 $500 −$500 -100%
Boxing: Usyk vs Dubois 2 Jul 19 $1,002 +$270 +27%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $50 32m
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $55 46m
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 52m
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 14¢ $31 55m
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 68¢ $17 2h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 2h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $34 2h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 2h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $15 3h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $101 16h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $114 16h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $90 16h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $80 16h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 82¢ $121 17h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $101 17h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL Yes $13 18h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $21 18h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes $18 18h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 12¢ $21 18h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 52¢ $26 18h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 33¢ $22 19h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 15¢ $41 20h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 99¢ $237 21h
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? SELL Yes $1 22h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 42¢ $102 24h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $89 24h
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes $10 24h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $21 25h
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 31¢ $100 24d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $95 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,124.73 · official $1,124.73 (match) · 178 history records