Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T09:35:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

9B
0x9b5b…4a17
other · 616 markets active 1h ago
3.5score
+$1,232 +7%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$1,344 · open −$177
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$638
Realized+$1,344
Unrealized−$177
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses279 / 314
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions23
Markets (closed)593 / 616
History coverage209d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day7.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%
Chart Positions 23 History 593 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$122
7 days+$55
14 days+$55
30 days+$41
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Curaçao 69¢ 68¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Yes 31¢ 30¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 42¢ 21¢ $97 $49 −$48 (-49%)
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Yes 55¢ 55¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? No 53¢ 52¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Tunisia 75¢ 74¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Yes 50¢ 50¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Yes 42¢ 42¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Over 32¢ 32¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-2%)
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 Under 30¢ 30¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-2%)
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 2.5 Under 83¢ 81¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-2%)
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Ecuador 15¢ 14¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-3%)
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) Côte dIvoire 10¢ 10¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-5%)
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Under 32¢ 32¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 2.5 Under 82¢ 80¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 42¢ 32¢ $20 $15 −$5 (-25%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? No 37¢ 18¢ $27 $13 −$14 (-53%)
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Neither team to score first? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-7%)
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI T1 36¢ 66¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+85%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? No 10¢ 1¢ $50 $3 −$47 (-94%)
Bill Gates charged by June 30? Yes 7¢ 1¢ $10 $1 −$9 (-89%)
Will Netflix close Warner Bros acquisition? Yes 45¢ 1¢ $50 $1 −$49 (-98%)
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 South Africa? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $51 +$56 +109%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 14 $50 +$22 +44%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 13 $25 +$3 +13%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $25 +$36 +140%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 13 $25 −$25 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 −$3 -14%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $51 −$50 -99%
United States vs. Paraguay: Paraguay 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $30 +$4 +13%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $50 +$47 +94%
United States vs. Paraguay: United States 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $12 +$14 +123%
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $55 +$18 +32%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Draw at halftime? Jun 12 $19 +$20 +105%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $36 +$9 +26%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $30 +$26 +86%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $27 −$22 -80%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $51 +$51 +99%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 12 $79 −$52 -66%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $36 −$4 -10%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $51 −$11 -21%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $20 +$15 +76%
Mexico to score first vs. South Africa? Jun 11 $20 +$6 +30%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $18 +$13 +73%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 South Africa? Jun 10 $9 −$9 -97%
Mexico vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 0.5 Jun 10 $10 −$10 -98%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Draw at halftime? Jun 07 $20 −$20 -98%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 07 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 07 $31 −$30 -98%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 07 $40 −$40 -99%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 25 $87 +$25 +29%
Iran leadership change by December 31? May 17 $27 +$3 +10%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 20 May 17 $50 +$1 +2%
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 39.0 and 39.4 on May 1, 2026? May 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 13, 2026? May 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by April 30? May 17 $22 −$22 -100%
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15? May 17 $51 −$51 -100%
Will the next Google Gemini model debut at a score of at least 1480? May 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026? May 17 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? May 17 $29 −$29 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026? May 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May? May 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? May 17 $50 +$7 +13%
Will Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in May? May 17 $10 +$12 +119%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? May 17 $23 +$18 +79%
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in May? May 17 $8 +$6 +78%
Will Trump and Putin not meet? May 17 $10 +$4 +44%
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman? May 17 $101 +$29 +29%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 17 $20 +$2 +8%
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%? May 17 $9 +$2 +26%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem May 17 $49 +$3 +7%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 17 $50 +$23 +46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 43% +$1,005
sports 24% −$48
world 16% −$3
crypto 5% +$90
finance 4% +$244
politics 4% −$4
economics 2% −$10
tech 2% −$115
culture 0% +$5
weather 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 36¢ $2 56m
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 1h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 2.5 BUY Under 83¢ $25 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 50¢ $25 1h
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) BUY Tunisia 75¢ $25 1h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 30¢ $26 1h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 32¢ $26 1h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $25 1h
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY Ecuador 15¢ $26 1h
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 10¢ $26 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 32¢ $20 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 2.5 BUY Under 82¢ $20 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $30 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 53¢ $30 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 31¢ $51 1h
Spread: Germany (-4.5) BUY Curaçao 69¢ $101 1h
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) BUY Scotland 39¢ $25 17h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY No 88¢ $25 17h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? SELL No 18¢ $18 17h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar O/U 0.5 BUY Over 41¢ $25 17h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 59¢ $51 17h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Morocco 69¢ $50 17h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $51 17h
United States vs. Paraguay: Paraguay 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Under 80¢ $1 31h
United States vs. Paraguay: Paraguay 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Under 80¢ $26 31h
United States vs. Paraguay: Paraguay 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Under 80¢ $7 31h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 93¢ $97 31h
United States vs. Paraguay: United States 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $26 32h
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $73 32h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 20¢ $20 44h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 +2.6% -7.2% 54% 54% -4.0%
≤30d 54 -3.2% -12.4% 59% 52% -7.6%
≤90d 126 +12.3% +1.6% 54% 47% +4.1%
all 593 +1.6% -8.1% 47% 40% -2.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover7.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.1% 40% -2.5%
10% -16.9% 33% -11.9%
15% -24.9% 28% -20.4%
20% -32.3% 22% -28.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $638.50 · official $638.51 (match) · 1897 history records