Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T21:15:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9B 0x9b59…0489 politics 43 markets active 1h ago coverage 326d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate36%15W / 27L
Drawdown85%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$41now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$3
14 days−$4
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 47% $0
other 26% $0
politics 18% +$1
crypto 4% $0
economics 4% $0
tech 1% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.5% -10.0% 14% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 14 -2.4% -11.7% 21% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 14 -2.4% -11.7% 21% 0% -9.5%
all 42 -0.9% -10.3% 36% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 0% -9.5%
10% -18.9% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.7% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.9% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 72% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

326d coverage
Net worth$41
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses15 / 27
Open positions1
Markets (closed)42 / 43
History coverage326d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown85%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 42 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? No 98¢ 96¢ $41 $41 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 20 $47 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $57 $0 -0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $59 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $111 −$1 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 18 $66 −$2 -3%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 18 $29 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $66 +$1 +1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $4 −$1 -38%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $132 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 05 $75 −$1 -2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 04 $61 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 30 $51 +$5 +10%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 29 $54 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 29 $103 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 23 $6 $0 -2%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? Dec 22 $50 +$1 +2%
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 15 $6 $0 +7%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 14 $7 $0 +7%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 19 $6 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 18 $7 $0 +1%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran before September? Sep 02 $6 $0 +1%
Will Ben Griffin win the 2025 FedEx St. Jude Championship? Aug 10 $6 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on July 31? Aug 10 $6 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 03 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 03 $6 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 03 $6 $0 +0%
Xi Jinping out before October? Aug 02 $6 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Aug 02 $10 −$1 -14%
Will Zhipu AI have a #1 AI model this year? Aug 01 $6 $0 +0%
Will Manfred Reyes Villa win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Aug 01 $47 $0 -0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jul 31 $0 $0 -6%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 31 $52 $0 +0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jul 31 $1 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in 2025? Jul 31 $6 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $105K in July? Jul 31 $63 $0 +0%
Will Ali Khamenei be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 30 $63 $0 +0%
Will Achraf Hakimi win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 30 $6 $0 +0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jul 30 $56 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 30 $7 $0 -0%
Will Cristian Popescu Piedone be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jul 29 $62 $0 +0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 29 $63 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 120–134 times July 25–August 1? Jul 29 $7 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $41 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 74¢ $32 15h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 74¢ $7 15h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 74¢ $3 15h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 74¢ $1 15h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 74¢ $4 15h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 74¢ $47 20h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $7 22h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $50 22h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $29 27h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $29 27h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 87¢ $13 30h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 87¢ $46 30h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 87¢ $30 34h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 87¢ $30 34h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $10 37h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $39 37h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $49 41h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 56¢ $63 45h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 58¢ $66 47h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $12 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $43 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $56 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $6 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $14 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $9 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $6 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $12 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.53 · official $40.53 (match) · 150 history records