Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T23:45:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
9B 0x9b56…ef7c other 38 markets active 1h ago coverage 642d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$60 (+5%) realized +$195 · open −$135
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate52%17W / 16L
Drawdown33%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit26%portable
Net worth$223now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$173
7 days+$206
14 days+$206
30 days+$206
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 88% +$75
world 6% −$45
sports 5% +$1
politics 1% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +5.0% -5.0% 60% 60% +16.0%
≤30d 25 +5.0% -5.0% 60% 60% +16.0%
≤90d 25 +5.0% -5.0% 60% 60% +16.0%
all 33 -3.7% -12.9% 52% 52% +6.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.9% 52% +6.9%
10% -21.2% 33% -3.4%
15% -28.8% 24% -12.7%
20% -35.8% 24% -21.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 43% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +28% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +18% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$10 · ×1.9 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.02 per $1 lost it wins $2.02
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

642d coverage
Net worth$223
Realized+$195
Unrealized−$135
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses17 / 16
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)33 / 38
History coverage642d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown33%
Kalshi-fit26%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ shots Yes 92¢ 48¢ $275 $144 −$131 (-48%)
Viktor Gyökeres: 2+ shots Yes 76¢ 78¢ $58 $59 +$1 (+2%)
Viktor Gyökeres: 3+ shots Yes 61¢ 50¢ $20 $16 −$4 (-18%)
Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ goals Yes 30¢ 20¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-32%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Curaçao O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $10 −$10 -98%
Evidence Makgopa: 2+ shots Jun 25 $20 +$25 +124%
Lee Kangin: 1+ shots Jun 25 $10 +$2 +16%
Evidence Makgopa: 1+ shots Jun 25 $50 +$15 +29%
Adam Hložek: 1+ shots Jun 25 $30 −$30 -100%
Evidence Makgopa: 3+ shots Jun 25 $10 −$10 -98%
Scott McTominay: 5+ shots Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Endrick score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $63 −$17 -27%
Scott McTominay: 3+ shots Jun 25 $10 +$21 +206%
Scott McTominay: 2+ shots Jun 25 $28 +$28 +98%
Scott McTominay: 1+ shots Jun 25 $126 +$30 +24%
Scotland vs. Brazil: Scotland O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 25 $5 +$7 +140%
Scotland vs. Brazil: Scotland O/U 1.5 Corners Jun 25 $15 +$5 +32%
Johan Manzambi: 2+ shots Jun 24 $30 +$16 +52%
Scott McTominay: 1+ goals Jun 24 $2 −$2 -98%
Ruben Vargas: 2+ shots Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Johan Manzambi: 4+ shots Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Johan Manzambi: 3+ shots Jun 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Cyle Larin: 1+ shots Jun 24 $30 +$4 +13%
Johan Manzambi: 1+ shots Jun 24 $20 +$4 +22%
Luis Díaz: 1+ shots AND James Rodríguez: 1+ shots AND Jhon Arias: 1+ s Jun 24 $102 +$108 +106%
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $101 +$22 +22%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 23 $16 +$11 +65%
Will 1+ matches be suspended by weather protocol during the 2026 FIFA Jun 23 $14 +$3 +18%
Will Neymar Jr. score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $15 −$2 -15%
Israel military response against Iran by Friday? Oct 07 $38 −$38 -100%
Pavel Durov leaves France in 2024? Oct 07 $40 +$5 +14%
Will Biden finish his term? Oct 07 $19 −$4 -23%
Israeli forces enter Lebanon before November? Oct 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Israel military response against Iran today? Oct 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Israel military response against Iran by Friday? Oct 04 $19 −$16 -86%
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November? Sep 30 $10 +$15 +151%
Will Real Madrid win La Liga? Sep 21 $30 −$1 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Viktor Gyökeres: 2+ shots BUY Yes 66¢ $8 1h
Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ shots BUY Yes 87¢ $25 1h
Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ shots BUY Yes 93¢ $251 1h
Viktor Gyökeres: 3+ shots BUY Yes 61¢ $20 1h
Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ goals BUY Yes 30¢ $5 1h
Viktor Gyökeres: 2+ shots BUY Yes 78¢ $50 1h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Curaçao O/U 0.5 BUY Over 42¢ $10 3h
Adam Hložek: 1+ shots BUY Yes 84¢ $30 22h
Lee Kangin: 1+ shots BUY Yes 86¢ $10 23h
Evidence Makgopa: 3+ shots BUY Yes 22¢ $10 23h
Evidence Makgopa: 2+ shots BUY Yes 44¢ $20 23h
Evidence Makgopa: 1+ shots BUY Yes 77¢ $50 23h
Will Endrick score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 50¢ $46 23h
Scott McTominay: 1+ goals BUY Yes 13¢ $2 25h
Scotland vs. Brazil: Scotland O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Over 41¢ $5 26h
Scotland vs. Brazil: Scotland O/U 1.5 Corners BUY Over 75¢ $15 26h
Scott McTominay: 3+ shots BUY Yes 32¢ $10 26h
Scott McTominay: 1+ shots BUY Yes 77¢ $25 26h
Scott McTominay: 5+ shots BUY Yes $2 26h
Scott McTominay: 2+ shots BUY Yes 50¢ $28 26h
Scott McTominay: 1+ shots BUY Yes 81¢ $101 26h
Cyle Larin: 1+ shots BUY Yes 88¢ $30 29h
Ruben Vargas: 2+ shots BUY Yes 64¢ $5 29h
Johan Manzambi: 4+ shots BUY Yes 26¢ $5 29h
Johan Manzambi: 3+ shots BUY Yes 46¢ $10 29h
Johan Manzambi: 1+ shots BUY Yes 82¢ $20 29h
Johan Manzambi: 2+ shots BUY Yes 65¢ $30 29h
Luis Díaz: 1+ shots AND James Rodríguez: 1+ shots AND Jhon Arias: 1+ s BUY 48¢ $51 2d
Luis Díaz: 2+ shots AND James Rodríguez: 2+ shots BUY 46¢ $25 2d
Luis Díaz: 1+ shots AND James Rodríguez: 1+ shots AND Jhon Arias: 1+ s BUY 48¢ $51 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $223.20 · official $223.20 (match) · 79 history records