Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T00:05:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0

score

9B 0x9b54…187b crypto 21 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d

UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$45 (+7%) realized +$70 · open −$25

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip

Net edge-14%after slip

Net WR65%break-even

Win rate70%14W / 6L

Drawdown72%max

Avg bet$30per market

Trades / day21.9pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit95%portable

Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +65%

net ROI/market (all)+1.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	20	+12.0%	+1.4%	70%	65%	-2.1%
≤30d	20	+12.0%	+1.4%	70%	65%	-2.1%
≤90d	20	+12.0%	+1.4%	70%	65%	-2.1%
all	20	+12.0%	+1.4%	70%	65%	-2.1%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover21.9 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	+1.4%	65%	-2.1%
10% ← realistic here	-8.3%	60%	-11.5%
15%	-17.2%	40%	-20.0%
20%	-25.3%	25%	-27.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 30% · top 2 48% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +12% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +12% → late +12% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$15 vs −$27 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×1.29 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage

Net worth$35

Realized+$70

Unrealized−$25

Win rate (resolved)70%

Wins / losses14 / 6

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions1

Markets (closed)20 / 21

History coverage2d

Avg bet$30

Trades / day21.9

Drawdown72%

Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 20 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET	Up	87¢	50¢	$60	$35	−$25 (-42%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET	Jun 22	$81	+$25	+31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET	Jun 21	$51	−$51	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET	Jun 21	$52	+$38	+74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET	Jun 21	$51	+$10	+19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Jun 21	$52	−$52	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	Jun 21	$25	+$3	+10%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw?	Jun 21	$82	+$62	+76%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$45	−$30	-65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET	Jun 21	$16	+$19	+120%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET	Jun 21	$15	+$9	+55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET	Jun 21	$11	+$4	+40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET	Jun 21	$10	−$10	-100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$15	+$4	+26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET	Jun 20	$10	+$22	+206%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET	Jun 20	$10	−$10	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET	Jun 20	$10	+$3	+32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET	Jun 20	$10	+$5	+49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET	Jun 20	$10	+$3	+31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET	Jun 20	$10	−$10	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET	Jun 20	$10	+$4	+36%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET	BUY Up	87¢	$61	3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET	SELL Up	99¢	$107	5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET	BUY Up	74¢	$81	9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET	BUY Up	74¢	$51	14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET	SELL Up	99¢	$90	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET	BUY Up	55¢	$52	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET	SELL Up	99¢	$60	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET	BUY Up	82¢	$51	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	BUY Up	39¢	$52	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	SELL Up	99¢	$28	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	BUY Up	89¢	$25	1h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw?	SELL Yes	100¢	$144	3h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw?	BUY Yes	57¢	$6	3h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw?	BUY Yes	56¢	$76	3h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	SELL Yes	25¢	$16	3h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	70¢	$10	5h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	70¢	$35	6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET	SELL Down	96¢	$34	20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET	BUY Down	42¢	$16	20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET	SELL Up	99¢	$24	20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET	BUY Up	62¢	$15	20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET	SELL Down	96¢	$16	20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET	BUY Down	67¢	$11	20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET	BUY Down	63¢	$10	20h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	SELL Yes	99¢	$19	29h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	78¢	$15	30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET	SELL Up	99¢	$32	41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET	BUY Up	31¢	$10	41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET	SELL Down	97¢	$13	41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET	BUY Down	72¢	$10	41h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.72 · official $34.72 (match) · 43 history records