Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:31:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9B 0x9b50…74b8 crypto 208 markets active 5d ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$57 (-9%) realized −$57 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate61%127W / 81L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day33.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$25
14 days−$70
30 days−$70
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$70
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-18.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 58 -26.1% -33.1% 60% 31% -23.0%
≤30d 208 -9.3% -18.0% 61% 38% -19.2%
≤90d 208 -9.3% -18.0% 61% 38% -19.2%
all 208 -9.3% -18.0% 61% 38% -19.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover33.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.0% 38% -19.2%
10% ← realistic here -25.8% 29% -26.9%
15% -33.0% 22% -34.0%
20% -39.6% 14% -40.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -22% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$57
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses127 / 81
Open positions0
Markets (closed)208 / 208
History coverage9d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day33.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 208 Trades
no open positions (36 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 11 $3 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 11 $4 +$2 +54%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +5%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +36%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 11 $4 +$2 +45%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 11 $4 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 11 $4 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 11 $4 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 11 $4 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -99%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +7%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 11 $4 +$4 +102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -99%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 11 $4 +$1 +28%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 11 $4 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 11 $4 +$1 +14%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 11 $3 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +14%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET SELL Down 27¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $3 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $2 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $2 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $2 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $2 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $2 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 542 history records