Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T09:16:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
9B 0x9b4e…128e other 101 markets active 1h ago coverage 83d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$437 (+3%) realized +$454 · open −$17
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate45%45W / 55L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$139per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days−$86
14 days+$159
30 days−$69
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% +$68
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-16.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -21.6% -29.1% 33% 0% -30.3%
≤30d 26 -9.2% -17.8% 46% 31% -10.6%
≤90d 100 -7.7% -16.5% 45% 32% -8.9%
all 100 -7.7% -16.5% 45% 32% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.5% 32% -8.9%
10% -24.5% 27% -17.6%
15% -31.8% 19% -25.6%
20% -38.4% 11% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -7% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$40 vs −$31 · ×1.28 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

83d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized+$454
Unrealized−$17
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses45 / 55
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)100 / 101
History coverage83d
Avg bet$139
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 100 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? Yes 23¢ 15¢ $54 $36 −$17 (-32%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? Jun 22 $35 +$4 +10%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $91 −$56 -62%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $246 −$33 -13%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $116 +$8 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $126 −$10 -8%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $167 −$43 -26%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $37 +$12 +32%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $322 +$106 +33%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $168 −$35 -21%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 12 $94 −$30 -32%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $217 +$244 +113%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $190 −$7 -4%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $384 −$185 -48%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $457 −$14 -3%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $102 +$27 +27%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $203 +$101 +50%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $102 +$54 +53%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $766 +$45 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $104 −$10 -10%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $53 +$28 +54%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $2 −$2 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $890 −$299 -34%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? May 27 $501 +$20 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $1,020 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $202 −$123 -61%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 25 $1,019 +$131 +13%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $680 +$35 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 18 $9 −$1 -12%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? May 18 $154 −$31 -20%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? May 18 $112 −$105 -94%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026? May 16 $100 +$46 +46%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 15 $553 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 14 $275 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 14 $56 −$11 -20%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026? May 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026? May 13 $144 +$211 +146%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 12 $116 +$26 +23%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026? May 11 $105 +$9 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026? May 10 $117 −$55 -47%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 7 to May 9, 2026? May 09 $253 +$54 +21%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 7 to May 9, 2026? May 09 $147 −$30 -20%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 08 $107 +$40 +38%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 07 $119 −$13 -11%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026? May 06 $57 −$55 -97%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026? May 06 $414 +$86 +21%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 05 $357 −$153 -43%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 05 $109 −$58 -53%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026? May 04 $161 +$56 +35%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026? May 04 $156 −$1 -1%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026? May 02 $21 +$4 +19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $27 1h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $28 1h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $39 41h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 90¢ $35 2d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $35 4d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 47¢ $65 5d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 47¢ $26 5d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 47¢ $92 5d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 60¢ $86 5d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 59¢ $36 5d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 39¢ $39 6d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 39¢ $2 6d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 39¢ $10 6d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 39¢ $3 6d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 39¢ $67 6d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 40¢ $58 6d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 38¢ $2 6d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 38¢ $4 6d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 38¢ $51 6d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 37¢ $3 6d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 37¢ $6 6d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL Yes 96¢ $125 7d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 89¢ $116 7d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 68¢ $116 7d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 72¢ $91 8d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 70¢ $4 8d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 70¢ $6 8d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 70¢ $4 8d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 70¢ $2 8d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 70¢ $19 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.21 · official $36.21 (match) · 350 history records