Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T21:19:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9B 0x9b4d…ba05 crypto 92 markets active 1h ago coverage 628d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$66 (-2%) realized −$66 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -29% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate22%20W / 72L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$16
7 days−$16
14 days−$45
30 days−$45
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 27% −$6
other 21% +$20
crypto 17% −$68
world 17% −$57
tech 8% −$42
politics 7% −$5
finance 2% $0
sports 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-35.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -2.6% -11.9% 57% 57% -46.2%
≤30d 16 -19.9% -27.6% 38% 38% -14.3%
≤90d 16 -19.9% -27.6% 38% 38% -14.3%
all 92 -29.1% -35.9% 22% 18% -14.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -35.9% 18% -14.1%
10% -42.0% 17% -22.3%
15% -47.6% 13% -29.8%
20% -52.8% 10% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -29% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -29% → late -30% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$6 · ×1.71 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

628d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$66
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses20 / 72
Open positions0
Markets (closed)92 / 92
History coverage628d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 92 Trades
no open positions (34 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$3 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 16 $13 −$11 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 16 $13 −$4 -33%
Will Anthropic IPO by September 15, 2026? Jun 03 $104 −$39 -37%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 03 $52 −$9 -17%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 03 $48 −$11 -22%
Will OpenAI have the third best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 03 $5 −$3 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 03 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 03 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the Jun 03 $103 +$30 +29%
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $2.0T at market close on IPO Jun 03 $206 −$19 -9%
Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026? Jun 03 $281 +$38 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Mar 17 $17 −$17 -100%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Mar 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 15, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Mar 15 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Mar 15 $3 −$3 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Mar 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Feb 28 $13 −$13 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 23, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Feb 23 $5 −$5 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 23, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Feb 23 $18 −$18 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 23, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Feb 23 $18 −$5 -28%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 23, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Feb 23 $22 +$5 +23%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 23, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Feb 23 $10 +$6 +63%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 23, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Feb 23 $18 +$2 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 23, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Feb 23 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Feb 23 $15 −$15 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 23, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Feb 23 $10 −$10 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 23, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Feb 23 $22 −$5 -23%
US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026? Feb 23 $4 −$4 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026? Feb 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 22, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Feb 22 $15 +$30 +198%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 22, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Feb 22 $5 −$5 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 22, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Feb 22 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Feb 21 $10 +$17 +171%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 21, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Feb 21 $17 +$35 +203%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 21, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Feb 21 $15 +$19 +126%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 21, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Feb 21 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 21, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Feb 21 $11 −$11 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 21, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Feb 21 $10 +$7 +74%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 21, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Feb 21 $12 −$12 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 21, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Feb 21 $11 +$15 +135%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Feb 21 $11 −$8 -74%
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026? Feb 19 $5 −$5 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026? Feb 19 $1 −$1 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026? Feb 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Feb 19 $3 −$2 -54%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET SELL Down 29¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET SELL Down 26¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Up 20¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Up 22¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET SELL Down 31¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET SELL Down 40¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET SELL Up 77¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET SELL Down 6¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET SELL Up 9¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $5 2h
Will Anthropic IPO by September 15, 2026? SELL No 58¢ $1 13d
Will Anthropic IPO by September 15, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $36 13d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $43 13d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $37 13d
Will OpenAI have the third best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 229 history records