Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T15:54:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
9B 0x9b4b…076b crypto 45 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$4 (+4%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate60%27W / 18L
Drawdown45%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day26.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-3.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 45 +6.2% -3.9% 60% 36% -1.9%
≤30d 45 +6.2% -3.9% 60% 36% -1.9%
≤90d 45 +6.2% -3.9% 60% 36% -1.9%
all 45 +6.2% -3.9% 60% 36% -1.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -3.9% 36% -1.9%
10% ← realistic here -13.1% 31% -11.3%
15% -21.5% 20% -19.9%
20% -29.2% 13% -27.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 45% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
41% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +11% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.53 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.3 per $1 lost it wins $2.3
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses27 / 18
Open positions0
Markets (closed)45 / 45
History coverage4d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day26.0
Drawdown45%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 45 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $11 +$5 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 16 $13 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $13 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$1 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET SELL Down 83¢ $17 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $11 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET SELL Down 81¢ $2 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $1 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $1 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET SELL Down 72¢ $12 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $11 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $1 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET SELL Up 72¢ $4 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $1 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET SELL Up 62¢ $10 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $11 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET SELL Up 82¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET SELL Up 57¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET SELL Down 83¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET SELL Up 94¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $1 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 115 history records