Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T22:22:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
9B 0x9b4a…9764 other 44 markets active 0h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL −$1 (-1%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +5% what you keep after slip
Net edge+5%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate22%9W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day7.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit23%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$31
7 days−$3
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 70% −$3
crypto 25% −$2
sports 4% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)+9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 +19.5% +8.1% 20% 20% -13.9%
≤30d 41 +20.4% +9.0% 22% 22% -9.2%
≤90d 41 +20.4% +9.0% 22% 22% -9.2%
all 41 +20.4% +9.0% 22% 22% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +9.0% 22% -9.2%
10% -1.5% 22% -17.9%
15% -11.0% 22% -25.8%
20% -19.7% 22% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +20% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +113% → late -68% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$1 · ×3.57 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses9 / 32
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)41 / 44
History coverage8d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day7.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit23%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+1%)
Antonio Nusa: 1+ goals Yes 28¢ 41¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+46%)
Amine Gouiri: 1+ goals Yes 16¢ 14¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $1 +$4 +388%
Will Bart Verbruggen record the most clean sheets at the 2026 FIFA Wor Jun 16 $1 −$1 -71%
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $1 $0 -23%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Morocco leading at halftime? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Nigeria? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Canada leading at halftime? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Nigeria? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Sweden finish second in Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Jun 15 $1 $0 -16%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Japan? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 2 Ecuador? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 2 Morocco? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 2 Czechia? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: United States 0 - 2 Paraguay? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 2 Paraguay? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Mikel Oyarzabal: 2+ goals Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Ecuador leading at halftime? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Crysencio Summerville: 1+ goals Jun 14 $1 +$3 +324%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 14 $3 +$2 +70%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $1 +$5 +509%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $1 +$3 +262%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 2 - 1 Czechia? Jun 12 $1 +$10 +980%
Czechia leading at halftime? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $1 +$5 +473%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 Nigeria? Jun 10 $1 +$8 +784%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Netherlands leading at halftime? Jun 08 $5 +$3 +57%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Amine Gouiri: 1+ goals BUY Yes 16¢ $1 22m
Antonio Nusa: 1+ goals BUY Yes 28¢ $1 29m
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 BUY Over 20¢ $1 1h
Will Bart Verbruggen record the most clean sheets at the 2026 FIFA Wor SELL Yes 2¢ $0 1h
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 43¢ $1 1h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 2h
Will Bart Verbruggen record the most clean sheets at the 2026 FIFA Wor SELL Yes 2¢ $0 9h
Will Sweden finish second in Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group SELL Yes 29¢ $1 24h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 26h
Mikel Oyarzabal: 2+ goals BUY Yes 28¢ $1 36h
Ecuador leading at halftime? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 2 Ecuador? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 2d
Crysencio Summerville: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $4 2d
Crysencio Summerville: 1+ goals BUY Yes 23¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Japan? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 46¢ $2 2d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 58¢ $3 2d
Morocco leading at halftime? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 3d
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 3d
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 2 Morocco? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 3d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 3d
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 3d
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 4d
Exact Score: United States 1 - 2 Paraguay? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 4d
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? SELL Yes 100¢ $6 4d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $4 4d
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 4d
Exact Score: United States 1 - 2 Paraguay? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.39 · official $8.39 (match) · 81 history records