Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T19:55:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5

score

9B 0x9b47…34d3 other 5 markets active 2h ago coverage 9d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$98 (-25%) realized −$275 · open +$177

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -76% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -78% what you keep after slip

Net edge-78%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate0%0W / 4L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$78per market

Trades / day0.8pace

Fees−$2est.

Kalshi-fit20%portable

Net worth$316now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 9d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-78.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	1	-3.2%	-12.4%	0%	0%	-12.4%
≤30d	4	-75.8%	-78.1%	0%	0%	-47.6%
≤90d	4	-75.8%	-78.1%	0%	0%	-47.6%
all	4	-75.8%	-78.1%	0%	0%	-47.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.8 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-78.1%	0%	-47.6%
10%	-80.2%	0%	-52.6%
15%	-82.1%	0%	-57.2%
20%	-83.9%	0%	-61.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top —% · top 2 —% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -42% too few recent

Fragile wins

—% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -76% · $-wt -42% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

— vs −$26 no data

Profit factor

×0.0 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage

Net worth$316

Realized−$275

Unrealized+$177

Win rate (resolved)0%

Wins / losses0 / 4

Est. fees paid−$2

Open positions1

Markets (closed)4 / 5

History coverage9d

Avg bet$78

Trades / day0.8

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit20%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 4 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Norway vs. France: France O/U 2.5	Over	44¢	100¢	$139	$316	+$177 (+127%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will France win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 26	$146	−$5	-3%
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Croatia?	Jun 17	$3	−$3	-97%
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia?	Jun 17	$67	−$65	-98%
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia?	Jun 17	$31	−$30	-98%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Norway vs. France: France O/U 2.5	BUY Over	44¢	$141	1h
Will France win on 2026-06-26?	SELL Yes	69¢	$142	1h
Will France win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	70¢	$146	1h
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Croatia?	BUY Yes	5¢	$3	8d
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia?	BUY Yes	17¢	$36	8d
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia?	BUY Yes	16¢	$31	8d
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia?	BUY Yes	17¢	$31	8d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $316.09 · official $316.09 (match) · 7 history records