Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T13:15:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
9B 0x9b47…4bd3 crypto 264 markets active 2h ago coverage 172d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$105 (-0%) realized −$98 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate89%230W / 28L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$164per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$953now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$21
7 days−$47
14 days−$448
30 days−$386
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 56% −$52
finance 38% +$349
sports 3% −$424
tech 2% −$5
other 0% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 +6.5% -3.7% 84% 32% -10.9%
≤30d 158 -4.3% -13.4% 87% 16% -10.9%
≤90d 209 -3.2% -12.4% 89% 13% -10.1%
all 258 -2.1% -11.4% 89% 12% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 12% -9.8%
10% -19.9% 7% -18.4%
15% -27.7% 4% -26.3%
20% -34.8% 3% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +3% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$35 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

172d coverage
Net worth$953
Realized−$98
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)89%
Wins / losses230 / 28
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions4
Markets (closed)258 / 264
History coverage172d
Avg bet$164
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 258 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $720 on June 23? Yes 100¢ 99¢ $508 $505 −$3 (-1%)
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $770 on June 23? No 99¢ 99¢ $230 $228 −$2 (-1%)
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $765 on June 23? No 100¢ 99¢ $217 $215 −$2 (-1%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $15 +$19 +122%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $720 on June 22? Jun 22 $305 +$2 +0%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $770 on June 22? Jun 22 $360 +$2 +1%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $5 +$1 +17%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 19? Jun 20 $100 $0 +0%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $5 +$3 +67%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $5 +$3 +65%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $30 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $100 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 June 15-21? Jun 19 $101 −$100 -99%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $81 on June 18? Jun 18 $100 $0 +0%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $80 on June 18? Jun 18 $50 $0 +1%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $76 on June 18? Jun 18 $100 +$2 +2%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $725 on June 18? Jun 18 $500 +$1 +0%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $730 on June 18? Jun 18 $258 $0 +0%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $5 +$5 +90%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $10 +$3 +31%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $30 +$2 +6%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $30 +$3 +11%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 +$4 +70%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $40 +$3 +8%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $5 +$6 +114%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $1 +$1 +74%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $10 +$1 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $955 +$4 +0%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $30 +$2 +6%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $10 +$1 +6%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,650 on June 15? Jun 16 $50 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 on June 15? Jun 16 $500 +$1 +0%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $770 on June 15? Jun 15 $734 +$7 +1%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $720 on June 15? Jun 15 $211 +$2 +1%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $454 −$454 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $20 +$2 +10%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $1 $0 +16%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$1 +17%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $10 +$1 +7%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -73%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $50 +$1 +1%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $20 +$1 +6%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 9.5 Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $30 +$1 +4%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $10 +$1 +5%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $50 +$1 +2%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $20 +$1 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $765 on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $217 1h
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $770 on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $130 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $5 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? A BUY 31¢ $5 1h
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $720 on June 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $497 2h
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $720 on June 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $1 10h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 81¢ $6 19h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 44¢ $10 20h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a d BUY 12¢ $2 20h
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $770 on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $60 20h
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $720 on June 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $200 21h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 22h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 45¢ $5 22h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $5 22h
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $770 on June 23? BUY No 99¢ $100 23h
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $720 on June 23? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 23h
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $720 on June 22? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 44h
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $770 on June 22? BUY No 99¢ $200 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $3 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $5 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $5 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $100 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 98¢ $100 4d
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 June 15-21? BUY Yes 83¢ $101 4d
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $720 on June 22? BUY Yes 99¢ $100 4d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $76 on June 18? BUY No 98¢ $100 4d
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $730 on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $258 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 98¢ $23 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 98¢ $7 4d
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $770 on June 22? BUY No 99¢ $100 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $952.56 · official $957.56 (match) · 700 history records