Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T05:59:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9B 0x9b47…d9be crypto 193 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (239 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$296 (+5%) realized +$294 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR74%break-even
Win rate82%157W / 35L
Drawdown47%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day238.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$46now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$230
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (239 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +74%
net ROI/market (all)-5.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 192 +4.8% -5.2% 82% 74% -5.6%
≤30d 192 +4.8% -5.2% 82% 74% -5.6%
≤90d 192 +4.8% -5.2% 82% 74% -5.6%
all 192 +4.8% -5.2% 82% 74% -5.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover238.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.2% 74% -5.6%
10% ← realistic here -14.3% 39% -14.6%
15% -22.6% 7% -22.9%
20% -30.2% 2% -30.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$23 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.28 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$46
Realized+$294
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses157 / 35
Open positions1
Markets (closed)192 / 193
History coverage1d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day238.8
Drawdown47%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 192 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Up 73¢ 76¢ $44 $46 +$2 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 16 $48 −$48 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 16 $51 +$13 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 16 $46 +$8 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 16 $46 +$9 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 16 $45 +$9 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 16 $50 +$10 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 16 $43 +$9 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 16 $30 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 16 $30 +$11 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $30 −$22 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 16 $30 +$6 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 16 $25 +$12 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $30 +$6 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 16 $30 +$8 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 16 $30 +$8 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 16 $30 +$8 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 16 $31 +$9 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $29 −$29 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 16 $30 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 16 $30 +$6 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $30 +$8 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 16 $31 +$7 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 16 $30 +$7 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 16 $30 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 16 $29 +$7 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 16 $31 +$5 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 16 $29 +$8 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 16 $29 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 16 $30 +$7 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 16 $30 +$7 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 16 $30 +$7 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 16 $31 +$10 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 16 $31 +$5 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 16 $30 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 16 $29 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 16 $31 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 16 $27 +$8 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 16 $30 +$4 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 16 $30 +$11 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 16 $30 +$5 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 16 $30 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 16 $30 +$8 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 16 $30 +$8 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 16 $30 +$11 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 16 $30 +$5 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 16 $31 +$9 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 16 $31 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 16 $29 +$8 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 16 $31 +$10 +33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $45 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $51 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET SELL Up 1¢ $1 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $48 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $51 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $46 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $46 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $45 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $3 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $10 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $13 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $25 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $43 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $30 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $30 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET SELL Down 23¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $30 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $31 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $30 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.90 · official $43.85 · 414 history records